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Decision Making in the Presence of Heterogeneous Information and Social Interactions

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Author Info
Binder, Michael
Pesaran, M Hashem

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Abstract

The authors consider the solution of multivariate linear rational expectations models in the presence of heterogeneous information and social interactions. To overcome the 'infinite regress in expectations' problem that arises in the solution of these models, we assume that agents' expectations about the decisions and expectations of other agents are based solely on public information. They show that the resulting solutions satisfy the key postulates of the rational expectations hypothesis, but can nevertheless exhibit dynamic properties quite different from those under homogeneous information. The authors illustrate this by analyzing a model of firms' optimal factor demand decisions. In this model, the presence of information heterogeneity may accentuate the propagation effects of external shocks on firms' factor demands. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 1027-52
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:39:y:1998:i:4:p:1027-52

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  1. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge," Working Paper Series 223, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Michael R. Wickens & Roberto Motto, 2001. "Estimating shocks and impulse response functions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 371-387. [Downloadable!]
  4. YANNIS M. IOANNIDES & Adriaan R. Soetevent, 2005. "Social Networking And Individual Outcomes: Individual Decisions And Market Context," Working Papers 05-16, NET Institute, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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