IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/euf/ecopap/0293.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asset Booms and Tax Receipts: The case of Spain, 1995-2006

Author

Listed:
  • C. Martinez-Mongay
  • L.A. Maza Lasierra
  • J. Yaniz Igal

Abstract

At about 3¾% for more than 10 years in a row, Spain is enjoying the longest period of sustained growth above the euro area since the late sixties. This period is also characterised by a combination of persistently low real interest rates and a dynamic demography, which has been feeding unprecedented growth in asset markets. In parallel, total-tax receipts have grown by about 4¼ percentage points of GDP, thus recording an elasticity with respect to GDP of 1.2. This paper discusses and assesses the extent to which the increase in tax receipts can be associated to changes in the composition of GDP, which would fade out after the current expansion tapers off. Econometric analyses provide evidence that 50 to 75 percent of the increase in tax revenues, observed in Spain between 1995 and 2006, might be of a transitory nature and would disappear with the asset boom. On this basis, in a context of significant composition effects, using standard tax elasticities may lead to an overestimation of structural revenues and to an incorrect assessment of the fiscal stance. This may be relevant in EMU because the likelihood of occurrence of asset booms may be relatively high when the monetary-policy stance is far from consistent with the country's inflation. Furthermore, in the specific case of Spain, the size of transitory composition effects associated to the current asset boom highlights the interest for the policymakers of the country to carefully assess the implementation of unfunded tax cuts and/or expenditure increases, especially those more difficult to revert in bad times.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Martinez-Mongay & L.A. Maza Lasierra & J. Yaniz Igal, 2007. "Asset Booms and Tax Receipts: The case of Spain, 1995-2006," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 293, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication10327_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morris, Richard & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2007. "Structural balances and revenue windfalls: the role of asset prices revisited," Working Paper Series 737, European Central Bank.
    2. Gabriel Fagan, 2007. "Adjusting to the Euro," Working Papers w200703, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Esteller-Moré, 2011. "Is the tax administration just a money machine? Empirical evidence on redistributive politics," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 275-299, September.
    2. Larch, Martin & Van den Noord, Paul & Jonung, Lars, 2010. "The stability and growth pact: lessons from the great recession," MPRA Paper 27900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francisco de Castro Fernández & Ángel Estrada García & Pablo Hernández de Cos & Francisco Martí Esteve, 2008. "Una aproximación al componente transitorio del saldo público en España," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue JUN, pages 69-81, Junio.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller & Balázs Égert & Oliver Röhn, 2010. "Counter-cyclical Economic Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 760, OECD Publishing.
    2. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 597-617, July.
    3. Ludger Schuknecht, 2019. "Fiscal-Financial Vulnerabilities," CESifo Working Paper Series 7776, CESifo.
    4. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Alexandre, Fernando & Bação, Pedro & Cerejeira, João & Portela, Miguel, 2010. "Manufacturing Employment and Exchange Rates in the Portuguese Economy: The Role of Openness, Technology and Labour Market Rigidity," IZA Discussion Papers 5251, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    7. Joao Tovar Jalles & Carlos Mulas‐Granados & José Tavares, 2021. "Fiscal discipline and exchange rates: Does politics matter?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 155-178, May.
    8. Bernadeta Baran, 2013. "Reguła średniookresowego celu budżetowego w Unii Europejskiej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 11-12, pages 23-47.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Gunnar Gunnarsson, 2015. "Fiscal Challenges in Multilayered Unions: An Overview and Case Study," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Kasselaki, Maria Th. & Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 53-106.
    11. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Klemm, Alexander, 2016. "The growth impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 265-279.
    12. Gabriel Fagan & Vitor Gaspar, 2008. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Monetary Union," Working Papers 2008/14, Czech National Bank.
    13. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Growth And Adjustment Challenges For The Euro Area," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 273-295.
    14. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
    15. Maria del Mar Delgado & Pablo Hernandez de Cos & Javier J. Pérez, 2017. "Institutional and economic determinants of Sub-national public debt in Spain," EcoMod2017 10518, EcoMod.
    16. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portugese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 143-210.
    17. Sabine Herrmann, 2009. "Do We Really Know That Flexible Exchange Rates Facilitate Current Account Adjustment? Some New Empirical Evidence for CEE Countries," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(4), pages 295-312.
    18. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2019. "Could the Boom‐Bust in the Eurozone Periphery Have Been Prevented?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 336-352, March.
    19. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    20. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECFIN INFO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dg2ecbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.