IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/harjfk/rwp14-048.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Belief in a Favorable Future

Author

Listed:
  • Rogers, Todd

    (Harvard University)

  • Norton, Michael I.

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

We propose that people hold a belief in a favorable future (BFF), projecting that the future will change in ways advantageous to their current interests. People believe that their political views, entertainment preferences, and scientific beliefs will be more widely held by others in the future (Study 1). BFF is greater in magnitude than the false-consensus effect (Study 2). BFF does not reflect a generalized optimism about the future or a belief that others will become more similar to the self: people believe the future will change in self-benefitting way, in particular (Study 3). BFF is greatest when people believe their views are based on objective truth (Study 4). Ironically, BFF may make the futures people anticipate less likely to occur by undermining people's motivation to take action today to bring about the favorable futures they believe to be inevitable.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogers, Todd & Norton, Michael I., 2014. "The Belief in a Favorable Future," Working Paper Series rwp14-048, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp14-048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/workingpapers/citation.aspx?PubId=9498&type=WPN
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rogers, Todd & Bazerman, Max H., 2008. "Future lock-in: Future implementation increases selection of 'should' choices," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 1-20, May.
    2. David G. Rand & Alexander Peysakhovich & Gordon T. Kraft-Todd & George E. Newman & Owen Wurzbacher & Martin A. Nowak & Joshua D. Greene, 2014. "Social heuristics shape intuitive cooperation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-12, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alós-Ferrer, Carlos & Garagnani, Michele, 2020. "The cognitive foundations of cooperation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 71-85.
    2. Christian Hilbe & Moshe Hoffman & Martin A. Nowak, 2015. "Cooperate without Looking in a Non-Repeated Game," Games, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Jacob W. Crandall & Mayada Oudah & Tennom & Fatimah Ishowo-Oloko & Sherief Abdallah & Jean-François Bonnefon & Manuel Cebrian & Azim Shariff & Michael A. Goodrich & Iyad Rahwan, 2018. "Cooperating with machines," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
      • Abdallah, Sherief & Bonnefon, Jean-François & Cebrian, Manuel & Crandall, Jacob W. & Ishowo-Oloko, Fatimah & Oudah, Mayada & Rahwan, Iyad & Shariff, Azim & Tennom,, 2017. "Cooperating with Machines," TSE Working Papers 17-806, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
      • Abdallah, Sherief & Bonnefon, Jean-François & Cebrian, Manuel & Crandall, Jacob W. & Ishowo-Oloko, Fatimah & Oudah, Mayada & Rahwan, Iyad & Shariff, Azim & Tennom,, 2017. "Cooperating with Machines," IAST Working Papers 17-68, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
      • Jacob Crandall & Mayada Oudah & Fatimah Ishowo-Oloko Tennom & Fatimah Ishowo-Oloko & Sherief Abdallah & Jean-François Bonnefon & Manuel Cebrian & Azim Shariff & Michael Goodrich & Iyad Rahwan, 2018. "Cooperating with machines," Post-Print hal-01897802, HAL.
    4. Wu, Yu’e & Zhang, Zhipeng & Yang, Guoli & Liu, Haixin & Zhang, Qingfeng, 2022. "Evolution of cooperation driven by diversity on a double-layer square lattice," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Christoph Engel & Paul A. M. Van Lange, 2021. "Social mindfulness is normative when costs are low, but rapidly declines with increases in costs," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(2), pages 290-322, March.
    6. Amanda Kvarven & Eirik Strømland & Conny Wollbrant & David Andersson & Magnus Johannesson & Gustav Tinghög & Daniel Västfjäll & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth, 2020. "The intuitive cooperation hypothesis revisited: a meta-analytic examination of effect size and between-study heterogeneity," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(1), pages 26-42, June.
    7. Anna Louisa Merkel & Johannes Lohse, 2019. "Is fairness intuitive? An experiment accounting for subjective utility differences under time pressure," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(1), pages 24-50, March.
    8. Jeanette A.M.J. Deetlefs & Mathew Chylinski & Andreas Ortmann, 2015. "MTurk ‘Unscrubbed’: Exploring the good, the ‘Super’, and the unreliable on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk," Discussion Papers 2015-20, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    9. Eamonn Ferguson & John Maltby & Peter A Bibby & Claire Lawrence, 2014. "Fast to Forgive, Slow to Retaliate: Intuitive Responses in the Ultimatum Game Depend on the Degree of Unfairness," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-8, May.
    10. Fabio Galeotti & Valeria Maggian & Marie Claire Villeval, 2021. "Fraud Deterrence Institutions Reduce Intrinsic Honesty," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2508-2528.
    11. Myrseth, Kristian Ove R. & Wollbrant, Conny E., 2017. "Cognitive foundations of cooperation revisited: Commentary on Rand et al. (2012, 2014)," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 133-138.
    12. Martin G. Kocher & Peter Martinsson & Kristian Ove R. Myrseth & Conny E. Wollbrant, 2017. "Strong, bold, and kind: self-control and cooperation in social dilemmas," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(1), pages 44-69, March.
    13. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:290-322 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Wladislaw Mill & Cornelius Schneider, 2023. "The Bright Side of Tax Evasion," CESifo Working Paper Series 10615, CESifo.
    15. Lohse, Johannes, 2016. "Smart or selfish – When smart guys finish nice," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 28-40.
    16. Recalde, María P. & Riedl, Arno & Vesterlund, Lise, 2018. "Error-prone inference from response time: The case of intuitive generosity in public-good games," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 132-147.
    17. Lohse, Tim & Simon, Sven A. & Konrad, Kai A., 2018. "Deception under time pressure: Conscious decision or a problem of awareness?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 31-42.
    18. Mirko Duradoni & Stefania Collodi & Serena Coppolino Perfumi & Andrea Guazzini, 2021. "Reviewing Stranger on the Internet: The Role of Identifiability through “Reputation” in Online Decision Making," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-12, April.
    19. Martin Binder & Leonhard K. Lades, 2015. "Autonomy-Enhancing Paternalism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 3-27, February.
    20. Katherine L. Milkman & Todd Rogers & Max H. Bazerman, 2009. "Highbrow Films Gather Dust: Time-Inconsistent Preferences and Online DVD Rentals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1047-1059, June.
    21. Anna Conte & M. Vittoria Levati & Natalia Montinari, 2019. "Experience in public goods experiments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 86(1), pages 65-93, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp14-048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ksharus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.