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Procyclicality and the New Basel Accord: banks' choice of loan rating system

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Author Info
Eva Catarineu-Rabell
Patricia Jackson
Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

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Abstract

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is proposing to introduce, in 2005, new risk-based requirements for internationally active (and other significant) banks. These will replace the relatively risk-invariant requirements in the current Accord. This article examines the implications of these new risk-based requirements for procyclicality, in particular whether the choice of particular loan rating system by the banks would significantly increase the likelihood of sharp increases in capital requirements in recessions, creating the potential for classic credit crunches. The paper finds that rating schemes which are designed to be stable over the cycle, akin to those of the external rating agencies, would not increase procyclicality but ratings which are conditioned on the point in the cycle, akin to a Merton approach, could substantially increase procyclicality. This makes the question of which rating schemes banks will use very important. The paper uses a general equilibrium model of the financial system to explore whether banks would choose to use a countercyclical, procyclical or neutral rating scheme. The results indicate that banks would not choose a stable rating approach which has important policy implications for the design of the Accord. The Committee may need to rule out some types of rating scheme currently used by the banks.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal Conference Series ; [Proceedings].

Volume (Year): (2002)
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Keywords: Risk management;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  6. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  8. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. " Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  19. Philip Lowe & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," BIS Working Papers 117, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  20. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Samu Peura & Esa Jokivuolle, 2004. "Simulation-based stress testing of banks’ regulatory capital adequacy," Finance 0405003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Risk Assessment Model for Banks," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe11, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ralph Chami & Mohsin S. Khan & Sunil Sharma, 2003. "Emerging Issues in Banking Regulation," IMF Working Papers 03/101, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fernando Gonzalez & François Haas & Ronald Johannes & Mattias Persson & Liliana Toledo & Roberto Violi & Martin Wieland & Carmen Zins, 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings - a literature review," Occasional Paper Series 16, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe13, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe18, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Anton Korinek, 2009. "Systemic Risk: Amplification Effects, Externalities, and Policy Responses," Working Papers 155, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  9. Jaap Bikker & Paul Metzemakers, 2004. "Is bank capital procyclical? A cross-country analysis," DNB Working Papers 009, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An assessment of Basel II procyclicality in mortgage portfolios," Banco de España Working Papers 0712, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lea Zicchino, 2005. "A model of bank capital, lending and the macro economy: Basel I versus Basel II," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 88, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Mohsin S. Khan, 2002. "New Issues in Bank Regulation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 333-356. [Downloadable!]
  15. Mark Illing & Graydon Paulin, 2004. "The New Basel Capital Accord and the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital," Working Papers 04-30, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  16. Dimitrios P Tsomocos, . "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," Bank of England working papers 175, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Inês Drumond, 2008. "Bank Capital Requirements, Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Basel Accords: A Synthesis," FEP Working Papers 277, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
  18. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Thomas F. Cosimano, 2005. "Did the Basel Accord cause a Credit Slowdown in Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 05/38, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ines Drumond & José Jorge, 2009. "Basel II Capital Requirements, Firms' Heterogeneity, and the Business Cycle," FEP Working Papers 307, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
  20. David VanHoose, 2008. "Bank Capital Regulation, Economic Stability, and Monetary Policy: What Does the Academic Literature Tell Us?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-14, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2008. "Rating systems, procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe27, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  22. Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital Regulation and Banks' Financial Decisions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 165-211, March. [Downloadable!]
  23. Mathias Drehmann & Steffen Sorensen & Marco Stringa, 2007. "Integrating credit and interest rate risk: A theoretical framework and an application to banks' balance sheets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 151, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  24. Patrick de Fontnouvelle & Virginia DeJesus-Rueff & John Jordan & Eric Rosengren, 2003. "Capital and risk: new evidence on implications of large operational losses," Working Papers 03-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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