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Transición Demográfica y Pobreza en América Latina. Un Análisis de Microsimulaciones

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Alejo

    (Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS) - FCE - UNLP y CONICET)

Abstract

La literatura empírica ha encontrado evidencia de una tendencia hacia el envejecimiento de la población en América Latina. Este documento analiza el impacto de los cambios demográficos sobre la pobreza utilizando las proyecciones demográficas de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas junto con distintos escenarios en la estructura educativa. La metodología utilizada en este trabajo es la de microsimulaciones econométricas. Su principal innovación consiste en proponer el método de máxima verosimilitud empírica como estrategia de simulación de ponderadores. Bajo todos los supuestos del modelo de simulación, los resultados sugieren que si la dinámica poblacional se mantiene los niveles de pobreza se verán reducidos. Sin embargo el efecto cuantitativo es muy débil, dejando un amplio margen para la planificación de políticas económicas orientadas a la reducción de la pobreza.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Alejo, 2010. "Transición Demográfica y Pobreza en América Latina. Un Análisis de Microsimulaciones," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0108, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    • Handle: RePEc:dls:wpaper:0108
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    transición demográfica; envejecimiento; pobreza; microsimulaciones; Empirical Likelihood; Quantile Regression; América Latina.;
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