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Poverty in Relation to Macroeconomic Trends, Cycles, and Policies

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Abstract

This survey concludes that general prosperity and economic growth have been considerably less powerful engines of progress against poverty in the U.S. than they were before 1973. Macroeconomic performance has deteriorated, and its relation to poverty has weakened too. It is shown that the incidence of poverty can be fairly well explained by regressions on unemployment rates and real wages, both in national time series and in state cross-sections. Recent downward deviations from these regressions appear to reflect structural labor market changes that make poverty less treatable by macro medicine.

Suggested Citation

  • James Tobin, 1993. "Poverty in Relation to Macroeconomic Trends, Cycles, and Policies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1030R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1030r
    Note: CFP 877.
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d10/d1030-r.pdf
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    1. Medoff, J.L., 1992. "The New Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1620, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    2. David M. Cutler & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Macroeconomic Performance and the Disadvantaged," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 1-74.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zyblock, Miles & Lin, Zhengxi & Zhengxi, Lin, 1997. "Trickling Down or Fizzling Out? Economic Performance, Transfers, Inequality and Low Income," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 1997110e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    2. Heather Boushey, 2002. "Reworking the Wage Curve: Exploring the consistency of the model across time, space and demographic group," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 293-311.
    3. R. Haveman & Schwabish J., "undated". "Macroeconomic Performance and the Poverty Rate: A Return to Normalcy?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1187-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    4. Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2020. "Markov-Switching Model of Family Income Quintile Shares," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(2), pages 207-222, June.

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