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Can the Fed talk the hind legs off the stock market?

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  • Eijffinger, Sylvester
  • Mahieu, Ronald
  • Raes, Louis

Abstract

Deliberately or not, by providing its stance on the prospects of the economy, rationalizing past decisions or announcing future actions, central banks influence financial markets' expectations of its future policy. In bad times, monetary policy communication inducing an upward revision of the path of future policy is good news for stocks. During an expansion the effect is weak and on average negative. The response of equities to central bank talk depends critically on the business cycle. There are strong industry specific effects of monetary policy actions and communication. These industry effects relate to the variation in cyclicality of different industries. Firm-specific effects of monetary policy relate to the leverage, the size and the price-earnings ratio of firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Eijffinger, Sylvester & Mahieu, Ronald & Raes, Louis, 2011. "Can the Fed talk the hind legs off the stock market?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8450
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mira Farka, 2022. "The credit channel of monetary policy before and after the zero lower bound: Evidence from the US equity market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 633-693, September.
    3. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2015. "Monetary dialogue 2009–2014 : Looking backward, looking forward," Other publications TiSEM b4d496af-6b5e-4290-9acd-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Credit channel; Monetary policy; Monetary policy announcements; stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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