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Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate

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Author Info
Rose, Andrew K
Supaat, Saktiandi

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Abstract

We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically a country experiencing a decline in its fertility rate can be expected to have higher savings, lower investment, a current account surplus, and accordingly a real depreciation. We test and confirm this hypothesis, controlling for a host of potential determinants such as PPP deviations and the Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a statistically significant and robust link between fertility and the exchange rate. Our point-estimate is that a decline in the fertility rate of one child per woman is associated with a depreciation of approximately .15% in the real effective exchange rate.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6312.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6312

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Related research
Keywords: cross-country data demographic effective empirical multilateral panel

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  5. John F. Helliwell, 2004. "Demographic Changes and International Factor Mobility," NBER Working Papers 10945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ralph C Bryant, 2006. "Asymmetric Demography and Macroeconomic Interactions Across National Borders," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Matthew Higgins & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1996. "Asian Demography and Foreign Capital Dependence," NBER Working Papers 5560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2001. "Aging and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 8553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Domeij, David & Flodén, Martin, 2004. "Population Ageing and International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 4644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Fair, Ray C & Dominguez, Kathryn M, 1991. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1276-94, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," NBER Working Papers 14168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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