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Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning

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Author Info
Carceles-Poveda, Eva
Giannitsarou, Chryssi

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Abstract

We study the extent to which self-referential adaptive learning can explain stylized asset pricing facts in a general equilibrium framework. In particular, we analyze the effects of recursive least squares and constant gain algorithms in a production economy and a Lucas type endowment economy. We find that recursive least squares learning has almost no effects on asset price behaviour, since the algorithm converges relatively fast to rational expectations. On the other hand, constant gain learning may contribute towards explaining the stock price and return volatility as well as the predictability of excess returns in the endowment economy. In the production economy, however, the effects of constant gain learning are mitigated by the persistence induced by capital accumulation. We conclude that, contrary to popular belief, standard self-referential learning cannot fully resolve the asset pricing puzzles observed in the data.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6223.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6223

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Related research
Keywords: Adaptive learning; Asset pricing; Excess returns; Predictability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Adaptive Learning in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Ravi Jagannathan & Ellen R. McGrattan & Anna Scherbina., 2000. "The declining U.S. equity premium," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-19. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2005. "E-Stability Does Not Imply Learnability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 276-287, April. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  8. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. "Learning with bounded memory in stochastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1437-1457, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Noah Williams, 2005. "Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-17, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 18 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  11. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:272-302 is not listed on IDEAS
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  13. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2006. "Learning and Stock Market Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 15, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Timmermann, Allan, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(4), pages 523-57, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2007. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning And Business Cycle Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2008-20, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Adaptive Learning in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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