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The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

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Author Info
Juan Pablo Medina
Claudio Soto

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Abstract

This paper uses an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal and real rigidities, to describe the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Chile. Our results show that foreign shocks and domestic supply shock account for a large share of output fluctuations over the last 20 years. Relatively tight domestic monetary conditions have contributed to contain inflationary pressures arising from other shocks, namely a slowdown in productivity by mid 90s. Foreign factors are also behind the large swings exhibited by the real exchange rate, although a monetary contraction in 1998 explains part of the delayed adjustment of the exchange rate in response to effects of the Asian crisis. The tight monetary policy around 1998 also contributes to the slow recovery of the employment afterwards.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 457.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:457

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chang, Yongsung & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Labor-supply shifts and economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1768, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2000. "Sticky Price Models of the Business Cycle: Can the Contract Multiplier Solve the Persistence Problem?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
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  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2007. "What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 446, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 458, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Altig & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2004. "Firm-specific capital, nominal rigidities and the business cycle," Working Paper Series WP-05-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  12. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Claudio Soto & Luis F. Céspedes, 2006. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 408, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  22. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Rodrigo Fuentes & Alejandro Jara & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia & Erika Arraño, 2003. "Efectos de la Nominalización de la Política Monetaria en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 197, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  25. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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