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Growth and Enduring Epidemic Diseases

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Author Info
Clive Bell ()
Hans Gersbach ()

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Abstract

This paper studies the formation of human capital and its transmission across generations when premature adult mortality is a salient feature of the demographic landscape, either permanently or in the form of a long-period wave that follows the outbreak of an epidemic. We establish several threshold properties of the model, for such a shock can severely retard economic growth, even to the point of leading to an economic collapse. Premature adult mortality may exacerbate inequality under nuclear family arrangements. Pooling mortality risks with equal treatment of all children may fend off, or even induce, a collapse, depending on the initial conditions and the size and duration of the shock. Awareness campaigns may also trigger a collapse by introducing undesirable expectational feedbacks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1729.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1729

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Related research
Keywords: epidemic diseases; HIV/AIDS; growth; collapse; pooling;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2001. "Child Labor and the Education of a Society," IZA Discussion Papers 338, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bruhns, Ramona, 2006. "The Long-run Effects of HIV/AIDS in Kenya," MPRA Paper 952, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nils-Petter Lagerl–f, 2003. "From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 755-777, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of Aids and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466, May.
  6. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1998. "Population, Technology and Growth: From the Malthusian Regime to the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Lorentzen, Peter L. & McMillan, John & Wacziarg, Romain, 2005. "Death and Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 5246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999. "From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Anne Case & Christina Paxson & Joseph Ableidinger, 2002. "Orphans in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. repec:rus:hseeco:71105 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Corrigan, Paul & Glomm, Gerhard & Mendez, Fabio, 2005. "AIDS crisis and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 107-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2006. "The Long-Run Economic Costs of aids: A Model with an Application to South Africa," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 55-89.
  15. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2006. "AIDS, "Reversal" of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa," NBER Working Papers 12181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ulrich Brandt-Pollmann & Ralph Winkler & Sebastian Sager & Ulf Moslener & Johannes P. Schlöder, 2006. "Numerical solution of optimal control problems with constant control delays," Economics working paper series 06/59, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Theresa Fahrenberger & Hans Gersbach, 2007. "Minority Voting and Long-term Decisions," Economics working paper series 07/70, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn, 2008. "Forward Guidance for Monetary Policy: Is It Desirable?," Economics working paper series 08/84, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Simone Valente, 2007. "International Status Seeking, Trade, and Growth Leadership," Economics working paper series 07/75, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  5. Edward J. Balistreri & Russell H. Hillberry & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2008. "Structural Estimation and Solution of International Trade Models with Heterogeneous Firms," Economics working paper series 08/89, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Simone Valente, 2007. "Human Capital, Resource Constraints and Intergenerational Fairness," Economics working paper series 07/68, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  7. Urs von Arx & Andreas Schäfer, 2007. "The Influence of Pension Funds on Corporate Governance," Economics working paper series 07/63, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  8. Christoph Heinzel & Ralph Winkler, 2007. "The role of environmental and technology policies in the transition to a low-carbon energy industry," Economics working paper series 07/71, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hans Gersbach & Ralph Winkler, 2007. "On the Design of Global Refunding and Climate Change," Economics working paper series 07/69, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich, revised Jul 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Damian S. Damianov & Johannes Gerd Becker, 2008. "Auctions with Variable Supply: Uniform Price versus Discriminatory," Economics working paper series 08/80, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ian A. MacKenzie,, 2008. "On the Sequential Choice of Tradable Permit Allocations," Economics working paper series 08/83, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  12. Volker Hahn, 2007. "Information Acquisition by Price-Setters and Monetary Policy," Economics working paper series 07/73, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hans Gersbach & Maik T. Schneider & Olivier Schneller, 2008. "On the Design of Basic-Research Policy," Economics working paper series 08/79, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  14. Theresa Fahrenberger & Hans Gersbach, 2007. "Legislative Process with Open Rules," Economics working paper series 07/64, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Ralph Winkler, 2006. "Now or Never: Environmental Protection under Hyperbolic Discounting," Economics working paper series 06/60, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Hans Gersbach, 2007. "The Global Refunding System and Climate Change," Economics working paper series 07/62, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  17. Maik T. Schneider, 2007. "Knowledge Codification and Endogenous Growth," Economics working paper series 07/65, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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