IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/721.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Informal Sector and Mobile Financial Services in Developing Countries: Does Financial Innovation Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Jacolin
  • Massil Keneck
  • Alphonse Noah

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of mobile financial services - MFS (mobile money, and mobile credit and savings) on the informal sector. Using both parametric and non-parametric methods on panel data from 101 emerging and developing countries over the period 2000-15, we find that MFS negatively affect the size of the informal sector. According to estimates derived from propensity score matching, MFS adoption decreases the informal sector size in a range of 2.4 – 4.3 percentage points of GDP. These formalization effects may stem from different possible transmission channels: improvement in credit access, increase in the productivity/profitability of informal firms attenuating subsistence constraints typical of entrepreneurship in the informal sector, as well as possible induced growth of firms already in the formal sector. The robustness of these results is supported by the use of an alternative estimation approach (instrumental variables). These findings lay the groundwork for the scarce literature on the macroeconomic impact of mobile financial services, a major dimension of the growing drive towards economic digitalization transiting through industry-level MW.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Jacolin & Massil Keneck & Alphonse Noah, 2019. "Informal Sector and Mobile Financial Services in Developing Countries: Does Financial Innovation Matter?," Working papers 721, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:721
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/wp721.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Asif Islam & Silvia Muzi & Jorge Luis Rodriguez Meza, 2018. "Does mobile money use increase firms’ investment? Evidence from Enterprise Surveys in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 687-708, October.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Informality and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 109-126, Summer.
    4. Aker, Jenny C. & Ksoll, Christopher, 2016. "Can mobile phones improve agricultural outcomes? Evidence from a randomized experiment in Niger," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 44-51.
    5. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    6. Savina Gygli & Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2019. "The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 543-574, September.
    7. Capasso, Salvatore & Jappelli, Tullio, 2013. "Financial development and the underground economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 167-178.
    8. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    9. Moller, Lars Christian & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2017. "Explaining Ethiopia’s Growth Acceleration—The Role of Infrastructure and Macroeconomic Policy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 198-215.
    10. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Goel, Rajeev K. & Nelson, Michael A. & Naretta, Michael A., 2012. "The internet as an indicator of corruption awareness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 64-75.
    12. Evans David S. & Pirchio Alexis, 2014. "An Empirical Examination of Why Mobile Money Schemes Ignite in Some Developing Countries but Flounder in Most," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 397-451, December.
    13. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    14. Simeon Djankov & Tim Ganser & Caralee McLiesh & Rita Ramalho & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "The Effect of Corporate Taxes on Investment and Entrepreneurship," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 31-64, July.
    15. Axel Dreher & Christos Kotsogiannis & Steve McCorriston, 2009. "How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(6), pages 773-796, December.
    16. Sekabira, Haruna & Qaim, Matin, 2017. "Can Mobile Phones Improve Gender Equality and Nutrition? Panel Data Evidence from Farm Households in Uganda," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 256215, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    17. DiPrete, Thomas A. & Gangl, Markus, 2004. "Assessing bias in the estimation of causal effects: Rosenbaum bounds on matching estimators and instrumental variables estimation with imperfect instruments," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Labor Market Policy and Employment SP I 2004-101, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    18. Torgler, Benno & Schneider, Friedrich, 2009. "The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 228-245, April.
    19. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2016. "Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 197-207.
    20. Dabla-Norris, Era & Gradstein, Mark & Inchauste, Gabriela, 2008. "What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-27, February.
    21. Aron, Janine, "undated". "'Leapfrogging': a Survey of the Nature and Economic Implications of Mobile Money," INET Oxford Working Papers 2017-02, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Jan 2017.
    22. Rajeev Goel & Iftekhar Hasan, 2011. "Economy-wide corruption and bad loans in banking: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 455-461.
    23. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    24. William Jack & Adam Ray & Tavneet Suri, 2013. "Transaction Networks: Evidence from Mobile Money in Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 356-361, May.
    25. Mothobi, Onkokame & Grzybowski, Lukasz, 2017. "Infrastructure deficiencies and adoption of mobile money in Sub-Saharan Africa," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 71-79.
    26. Niloy Bose & Salvatore Capasso & Martin Andreas Wurm, 2012. "The impact of banking development on the size of shadow economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(6), pages 620-638, October.
    27. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    28. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio Montenegro, 2010. "New Estimates for the Shadow Economies all over the World," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 443-461.
    29. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    30. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    31. Rajeev Goel & James Saunoris, 2014. "Global corruption and the shadow economy: spatial aspects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 119-139, October.
    32. Sekabira, Haruna & Qaim, Matin, 2017. "Can mobile phones improve gender equality and nutrition? Panel data evidence from farm households in Uganda," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-103.
    33. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    34. Jenny C. Aker & Rachid Boumnijel & Amanda McClelland & Niall Tierney, 2016. "Payment Mechanisms and Antipoverty Programs: Evidence from a Mobile Money Cash Transfer Experiment in Niger," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 1-37.
    35. Elgin, Ceyhun, 2013. "Internet usage and the shadow economy: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 111-121.
    36. Niloy Bose & Salvatore Capasso & Martin Andreas Wurm, 2012. "The impact of banking development on the size of shadow economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 620-638, December.
    37. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 139-171, February.
    38. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2018. "Does globalisation affect the shadow economy?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 222-241, January.
    39. Rud, Juan Pablo, 2012. "Electricity provision and industrial development: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 352-367.
    40. Blackburn, Keith & Bose, Niloy & Capasso, Salvatore, 2012. "Tax evasion, the underground economy and financial development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-253.
    41. Mitra, Shalini, 2017. "To tax or not to tax? When does it matter for informality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 117-127.
    42. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    43. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
    44. William Jack & Tavneet Suri, 2014. "Risk Sharing and Transactions Costs: Evidence from Kenya's Mobile Money Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 183-223, January.
    45. Samuel Guérineau & Luc Jacolin, 2014. "L'inclusion financière en Afrique subsaharienne : faits stylisés et déterminants," Revue d'économie financière, Association d'économie financière, vol. 0(4), pages 57-80.
    46. Beck, Thorsten & Pamuk, Haki & Ramrattan, Ravindra & Uras, Burak R., 2018. "Payment instruments, finance and development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 162-186.
    47. Joël Cariolle & Maelan Le Goff & Olicier Santoni, 2019. "Digital vulnerability and performance of firms in developing countries," Working papers 709, Banque de France.
    48. Shu Lin, 2010. "On the International Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 195-199, February.
    49. Maëlle Della Peruta, 2018. "Adoption of mobile money and financial inclusion: a macroeconomic approach through cluster analysis," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 154-173, February.
    50. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Corruption and the shadow economy: like oil and vinegar, like water and fire?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 172-194, February.
    51. Calderon, Cesar & Serven, Luis, 2014. "Infrastructure, growth, and inequality : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7034, The World Bank.
    52. Munyegera, Ggombe Kasim & Matsumoto, Tomoya, 2016. "Mobile Money, Remittances, and Household Welfare: Panel Evidence from Rural Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 127-137.
    53. Janine Aron, 2018. "Mobile Money and the Economy: A Review of the Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 33(2), pages 135-188.
    54. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G. & Ellis, Michael A. & Adom, Assandé Désiré, 2016. "Political Instability and the Informal Economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 31-42.
    55. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
    56. Riley, Emma, 2018. "Mobile money and risk sharing against village shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 43-58.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sébastien Galanti & Ҫiğdem Yilmaz Ӧzsoy, 2022. "Digital finance, development, and climate change," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistics for Sustainable Finance, volume 56, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Lahlou, Kamal & Doghmi, Hicham & Schneider, Friedrich, 2020. "The Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Morocco," Document de travail 2020-3, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luc Jacolin & Joseph Keneck Massil & Alphonse Noah, 2021. "Informal sector and mobile financial services in emerging and developing countries: Does financial innovation matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2703-2737, September.
    2. Joseph Keneck-Massil & Alphonse Noah, 2019. "Shadow economy and educational systems in Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1467-1478.
    3. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2021. "Hide and seek: IMF intervention and the shadow economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 292-319.
    4. Melingui Bate Adalbert Abraham Ghislain, 2022. "Does the diffusion of information and communication technologies affect the shadow economy in Africa?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 513-526, December.
    5. KOUAKOU, Dorgyles C.M. & YEO, Kolotioloma I.H., 2023. "Can innovation reduce the size of the informal economy? Econometric evidence from 138 countries," MPRA Paper 119264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2016. "Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 197-207.
    7. Avom, Désiré & Bangaké, Chrysost & Ndoya, Hermann, 2023. "Do financial innovations improve financial inclusion? Evidence from mobile money adoption in Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    8. Emmanuel Umoru Haruna & Usman Alhassan, 2022. "Does digitalization limit the proliferation of the shadow economy in African countries? An in‐depth panel analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(S1), pages 34-62, July.
    9. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G., 2021. "Can e-government limit the scope of the informal economy?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Owolabi, Adegboyega O. & Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2022. "Is the shadow economy procyclical or countercyclical over the business cycle? International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 257-270.
    11. Emmanuel U. Haruna, 2023. "The multidimensional effect of financial development on the shadow economy in Africa: A dynamic panel analysis approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 327-365, May.
    12. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2023. "The case for independence: Does central bank independence curb the spread of the underground economy?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(3), pages 407-435, August.
    13. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G. & Ellis, Michael A. & Adom, Assandé Désiré, 2016. "Political Instability and the Informal Economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 31-42.
    14. Aziz N. Berdiev & Brandon Gomes & James W. Saunoris, 2023. "Revisiting the nexus between globalisation and the shadow economy: Untying the influences of de jure versus de facto globalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 27-54, January.
    15. Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W. & Schneider, Friedrich, 2019. "Drivers of the underground economy for over a century: A long term look for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 95-106.
    16. Schneider, Friedrich & Khan, Shabeer & Baharom Abdul Hamid & Khan, Abidullah, 2019. "Does the tax undermine the effect of remittances on shadow economy?," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-67, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Feige, Edgar L., 2015. "Reflections on the meaning and measurement of Unobserved Economies: What do we really know about the “Shadow Economy”?," MPRA Paper 68466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Folorunsho Monsuru Ajide & James Temitope Dada & Johnson Kolawole Olowookere, 2022. "Shadow economy and foreign direct investment in Nigerian manufacturing industry," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(2), pages 156-180.
    19. Henri Njangang & Luc Ndeffo Nembot & Joseph Pasky Ngameni, 2020. "Does financial development reduce the size of the informal economy in sub‐Saharan African countries?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 375-391, September.
    20. Lv, Zhike, 2020. "Does tourism affect the informal sector?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mobile financial services; Mobile money; Financial innovation; Digitalization; Informal sector; Developing countries.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • L96 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Telecommunications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.