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The short-term impact of government budgets on prices; evidence from macroeconometric models

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Author Info
Jerome Henry (European Central Bank)
Pablo Hernandez de Cos (Banco de Espana)
Sandro Momigliano () (Banca d'Italia)

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Abstract

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the Eurosystem. The outcome is also compared with results from the European Commission and the OECD models. Overall, a broad consensus appears on the impact on prices of changes in individual government budget items in the euro area. In all cases, changes in government demand and in direct taxes paid by households have a limited impact on prices in the first year while, in contrast, changes in indirect taxes and employersÂ’ social security contributions have a relatively large impact. The second year results show that the effects on prices usually take some time to materialise fully; in particular, they often become large for the public consumption shock.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 523.

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Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_523_04

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Related research
Keywords: Euro area; model simulations; fiscal policy; prices;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francisco de Castro & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Working Paper Series 647, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J & Cottarelli, Carlo & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Symansky, Steven, 2009. "Fiscal Policy for the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 26-32, 07. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2003. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economics Working Papers 923, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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