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Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model

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Thomas Dalsgaard
Christophe André
Pete Richardson

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Abstract

One of the OECD Economic Department’s key vehicles for analysing effects and international spillovers of macroeconomic policy as well as assessing risks to the global outlook is the macroeconometric model, INTERLINK. In the context of the Department’s regular projection exercises the model performs a variety of functions. These include 1) contributing to the construction and co-ordination of individual country projections; 2) the production of globally consistent trade projections; and 3) simulations to explore the short- to medium-term consequences of alternative economic conditions and policy assumptions. This paper briefly describes the main features of the current version of INTERLINK and presents the results of a number of standard macroeconomic shocks. These simulation results reflect the combination of unadjusted model properties and the specific stylised policy assumptions made. In the course of more routine policy analysis with the model at the OECD, these are augmented by ...


Le modèle macro-économétrique INTERLINK est l’un des principaux outils du Département des affaires économiques de l’OCDE pour analyser les effets directs et les répercussions internationales des politiques économiques et pour évaluer les risques pesant sur les perspectives globales. Dans le cadre des exercices réguliers de prévision, le modèle remplit diverses fonctions parmi lesquelles : 1) contribuer à la construction et à la coordination des prévisions de chaque pays; 2) produire des prévisions du commerce international globalement cohérentes; et 3) réaliser des simulations pour explorer les conséquences à court et à moyen terme de différentes hypothèses sur l’environnement économique et les politiques économiques. Ce document de travail décrit brièvement les principales caractéristiques de la version actuelle d’INTERLINK et présente les résultats de chocs macro-économiques standards. Ces résultats de simulations reflètent à la fois les propriétés intrinsèques du modèle et des ...

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Paper provided by OECD, Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 306.

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Date of creation: 06 Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:306-en

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Related research
Keywords: forecasting; macroeconometric model; simulation; modèle macroéconométrique; perspectives; simulation;

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C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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  1. Paul Gaggl & Serguei Kaniovski & Klaus Prettner & Thomas Url, 2009. "The short and long-run interdependencies between the Eurozone and the USA," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 209-227, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pablo Pincheira & Álvaro García, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Inflation The Case of Chile and a Sample of Industrial Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 413, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2003. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economics Working Papers 923, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  4. jerome henry & sandro momigliano & pablo hernandez de cos, 2005. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices Evidence from macroeconometric models," Macroeconomics 0501020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2004. "Business Cycle Transmission from the US to Germany : a Structural Factor Approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rosaria Rita Canale & Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Oreste Napolitano, 2007. "On Keynesian effects of (apparent) non-Keynesian fiscal policies," Discussion Papers 8_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Marcelo Sánchez, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups - results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 860, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Fritz Breuss, 0002. "Was ECB's Monetary Policy Optimal?," WIFO Working Papers 173, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  10. Martin Schneider, 2004. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes on Growth and Inflation," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 27-36, July. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ruiz, Juan, 2004. "Causas y consecuencias de la evolución reciente del precio del petróleo," MPRA Paper 431, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Douwe Kingma & Wim Suyker, 2004. "FAQs about oil and the world economy," CPB Memoranda 104, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? : Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  16. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2007. "SAFFIER A multi-purpose model of the Dutch economy for short-term and medium-term analyses," CPB Documents 144, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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