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The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: evidence for Brazil

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  • Benjamin M. Tabak

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in the Brazilian economy. We use recently developed unit root and cointegration tests, which allow endogenous breaks, to test for a long run relationship between these variables. We performed linear, and nonlinear causality tests after considering both volatility and linear dependence. We found that there is no long-run relationship, but there is linear Granger causality from stock prices to exchange rates, in line with the portfolio approach: stock prices lead exchange rates with a negative correlation. Furthermore, we found evidence of nonlinear Granger causality from exchange rates to stock prices, in line with the traditional approach: exchange rates lead stock prices. We believe these findings have practical applications for international investors

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: evidence for Brazil," Working Papers Series 124, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:124
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    1. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
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    5. Pedro H. Albuquerque, 2003. "A practical log-linear aggregation method with examples: heterogeneous income growth in the USA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 665-678.
    6. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2003. "Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 514, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    7. Márcio I. Nakane & Leonardo S. Alencar & Fabio Kanczuk, 2006. "Demand for Bank Services and Market Power in Brazilian Banking," Working Papers Series 107, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Souza, Sergio R.S. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2006. "Investigação da Memória de Longo Prazo na Taxa de Câmbio no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.
    9. Eduardo J. A. Lima & Felipe Luduvice & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "Forecasting Interest Rates: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 120, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. A. Lago Alves & Mirta N. S. Bugarin, 2006. "The Role of Consumer's Risk Aversion on Price Rigidity," Working Papers Series 121, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    12. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo & Thaís Porto Ferreira, 2002. "Os Preços Administrados e a Inflação no Brasil," Working Papers Series 59, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Areosa, Waldyr Dutra & Areosa, Marta B.M., 2016. "The inequality channel of monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 214-230.
    15. Marcelle Chauvet, 2000. "Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil," Working Papers Series 7, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Araújo, Aloísio Pessoa de & Leon, Márcia Saraiva, 2002. "Speculative attacks on debts, dollarization and optimum currency areas," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 446, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    17. Eduardo Lundberg, 2000. "Política Monetária e Supervisão do Sistema Financeiro Nacional no Banco Central do Brasil," Working Papers Series 2, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    18. Getúlio Borges da Silveira & Octavio Bessada, 2003. "Análise de componentes principais de dados funcionais - uma aplicação às estruturas a termo de taxas de juros," Working Papers Series 73, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    19. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    20. Ricardo Schechtman & Valéria Salomão Garcia & Sergio Mikio Koyama & Guilherme Cronemberger Parente, 2004. "Credit Risk Measurement and the Regulation of Bank Capital and Provision Requirements in Brazil - A Corporate Analysis," Working Papers Series 91, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Alan Cosme Rodrigues da Silva & João Maurício de Souza Moreira & Myriam Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2003. "Avaliação de Modelos de Exigência de Capital para Risco de Mercado do Cupom Cambial," Working Papers Series 111, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    22. Benjamin Miranda Tabak. Solange Maria Guerra, 2002. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Working Papers Series 54, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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