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Long-term Effects of India's Childhood Immunization Program on Earnings and Consumption Expenditure: Comment

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  • David Roodman

Abstract

Summan, Nandi, and Bloom (2023; SNB) studies the long-term effects of India's Uni-versal Immunization Programme (UIP). SNB finds that infants exposed to the UIP in the late 1980s had higher wages in early adulthood (0.138 log points) and higher per-capita household consumption (0.028 points). The results are attained by regressing on age while controlling for year of birth, two variables that are nearly collinear. As a result, the identifying variation in treatment is associated not with the staggered introduction of the UIP across India's districts in the late 1980s, but with the progression of time during the one-year follow-up survey period in 2011-12. The SNB findings are subject to confounding from economic growth and other trends during that period. Such confounders likely dominate because wages and consumption rose nearly as much among those too old to have been exposed to the UIP.

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  • David Roodman, 2024. "Long-term Effects of India's Childhood Immunization Program on Earnings and Consumption Expenditure: Comment," Papers 2401.11100, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2401.11100
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    1. Esther Duflo, 2001. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 795-813, September.
    2. Hoyt Bleakley, 2010. "Malaria Eradication in the Americas: A Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-45, April.
    3. Alicia Atwood, 2022. "The Long-Term Effects of Measles Vaccination on Earnings and Employment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 34-60, May.
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