IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2301.06631.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robust M-Estimation for Additive Single-Index Cointegrating Time Series Models

Author

Listed:
  • Chaohua Dong
  • Jiti Gao
  • Yundong Tu
  • Bin Peng

Abstract

Robust M-estimation uses loss functions, such as least absolute deviation (LAD), quantile loss and Huber's loss, to construct its objective function, in order to for example eschew the impact of outliers, whereas the difficulty in analysing the resultant estimators rests on the nonsmoothness of these losses. Generalized functions have advantages over ordinary functions in several aspects, especially generalized functions possess derivatives of any order. Generalized functions incorporate local integrable functions, the so-called regular generalized functions, while the so-called singular generalized functions (e.g. Dirac delta function) can be obtained as the limits of a sequence of sufficient smooth functions, so-called regular sequence in generalized function context. This makes it possible to use these singular generalized functions through approximation. Nevertheless, a significant contribution of this paper is to establish the convergence rate of regular sequence to nonsmooth loss that answers a call from the relevant literature. For parameter estimation where objective function may be nonsmooth, this paper first shows as a general paradigm that how generalized function approach can be used to tackle the nonsmooth loss functions in Section two using a very simple model. This approach is of general interest and applicability. We further use the approach in robust M-estimation for additive single-index cointegrating time series models; the asymptotic theory is established for the proposed estimators. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimation method and theory by both simulated data and an empirical analysis of predictive regression of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Yundong Tu & Bin Peng, 2023. "Robust M-Estimation for Additive Single-Index Cointegrating Time Series Models," Papers 2301.06631, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.06631
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.06631
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dong, Chaohua & Linton, Oliver, 2018. "Additive nonparametric models with time variable and both stationary and nonstationary regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 212-236.
    2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    3. Kasparis, Ioannis & Andreou, Elena & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2015. "Nonparametric predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 468-494.
    4. Koo, Bonsoo & Anderson, Heather M. & Seo, Myung Hwan & Yao, Wenying, 2020. "High-dimensional predictive regression in the presence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 456-477.
    5. Dong, Chaohua & Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin, 2015. "Semiparametric single-index panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 301-312.
    6. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
    7. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-161, January.
    8. Xiaohong Chen & Xiaotong Shen, 1998. "Sieve Extremum Estimates for Weakly Dependent Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 289-314, March.
    9. Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Quantile cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 248-260, June.
    10. Davis, Richard A. & Knight, Keith & Liu, Jian, 1992. "M-estimation for autoregressions with infinite variance," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-180, February.
    11. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 269-298, June.
    12. Wang, Qiying & Wu, Dongsheng & Zhu, Ke, 2018. "Model checks for nonlinear cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 261-284.
    13. Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Predictive quantile regression with persistent covariates: IVX-QR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 105-118.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    15. Dong, Chaohua & Gao, Jiti & Tjøstheim, Dag & Yin, Jiying, 2017. "Specification testing for nonlinear multivariate cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 104-117.
    16. Phillips, Peter C.B., 1995. "Robust Nonstationary Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 912-951, October.
    17. He, Xuming & Shao, Qi-Man, 2000. "On Parameters of Increasing Dimensions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 120-135, April.
    18. Lee, Ji Hyung & Shi, Zhentao & Gao, Zhan, 2022. "On LASSO for predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(2), pages 322-349.
    19. Phillips, P.C.B., 1991. "A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 450-463, December.
    20. Pollard, David, 1991. "Asymptotics for Least Absolute Deviation Regression Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 186-199, June.
    21. Tu, Yundong & Liang, Han-Ying & Wang, Qiying, 2022. "Nonparametric inference for quantile cointegrations with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 453-482.
    22. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    23. Dong, Chaohua & Gao, Jiti, 2018. "Specification Testing Driven By Orthogonal Series For Nonlinear Cointegration With Endogeneity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 754-789, August.
    24. Ziwei Mei & Zhentao Shi, 2022. "On LASSO for High Dimensional Predictive Regression," Papers 2212.07052, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    25. Bravo, Francesco & Li, Degui & Tjøstheim, Dag, 2021. "Robust nonlinear regression estimation in null recurrent time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 416-438.
    26. Chen, Xirong & Li, Degui & Li, Qi & Li, Zheng, 2019. "Nonparametric estimation of conditional quantile functions in the presence of irrelevant covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 433-450.
    27. Fan, Rui & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2019. "Predictive quantile regressions under persistence and conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 261-280.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Yundong Tu, 2021. "Multiple-index Nonstationary Time Series Models: Robust Estimation Theory and Practice," Papers 2111.02023, arXiv.org.
    2. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Yundong Tu, 2021. "Multiple-index Nonstationary Time Series Models: Robust Estimation Theory and Practice," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 18/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    3. Tu, Yundong & Liang, Han-Ying & Wang, Qiying, 2022. "Nonparametric inference for quantile cointegrations with stationary covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 453-482.
    4. Tu, Yundong & Xie, Xinling, 2023. "Penetrating sporadic return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(1).
    5. Fan, Rui & Lee, Ji Hyung & Shin, Youngki, 2023. "Predictive quantile regression with mixed roots and increasing dimensions: The ALQR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    6. Zhou, Weilun & Gao, Jiti & Harris, David & Kew, Hsein, 2024. "Semi-parametric single-index predictive regression models with cointegrated regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    7. Dong, Chaohua & Linton, Oliver & Peng, Bin, 2021. "A weighted sieve estimator for nonparametric time series models with nonstationary variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 909-932.
    8. Zongwu Cai & Haiqiang Chen & Xiaosai Liao, 2020. "A New Robust Inference for Predictive Quantile Regression," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202002, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2020.
    9. Lee, Ji Hyung, 2016. "Predictive quantile regression with persistent covariates: IVX-QR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 105-118.
    10. Fan, Rui & Lee, Ji Hyung, 2019. "Predictive quantile regressions under persistence and conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 261-280.
    11. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Structural Break Detection in Quantile Predictive Regression Models with Persistent Covariates," Papers 2302.05193, arXiv.org.
    12. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Quantile Time Series Regression Models Revisited," Papers 2308.06617, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    13. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong & Yao, Qiwei, 2020. "Estimation for double-nonlinear cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 175-191.
    14. Alex Maynard & Katsumi Shimotsu & Nina Kuriyama, 2023. "Inference in Predictive Quantile Regressions," Papers 2306.00296, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    15. Lin, Yingqian & Tu, Yundong & Yao, Qiwei, 2020. "Estimation for double-nonlinear cointegration," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103830, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Weilun Zhou & Jiti Gao & David Harris & Hsein Kew, 2019. "Semiparametric Single-index Predictive Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 25/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    17. Zhishui Hu & Ioannis Kasparis & Qiying Wang, 2020. "Locally trimmed least squares: conventional inference in possibly nonstationary models," Papers 2006.12595, arXiv.org.
    18. Cai, Zongwu & Chen, Haiqiang & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "A new robust inference for predictive quantile regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 227-250.
    19. Chaohua Dong & Jiti Gao & Bin Peng & Yundong Tu, 2023. "Smoothing the Nonsmoothness," Papers 2309.16348, arXiv.org.
    20. Demetrescu, Matei & Georgiev, Iliyan & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2023. "Extensions to IVX methods of inference for return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.06631. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.