IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/eaae11/114698.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessing the Future Development of the Macedonian Agriculture: Partial equilibrium model of livestock-feed sector

Author

Listed:
  • Kotevska, Ana
  • Dimitrievski, Dragi
  • Erjavec, Emil

Abstract

The country is facing one of the biggest challenges since its independence – the process of the EU accession. Taking into consideration that „forecasting important economic events is source of power“ (Howitt, 2005), the aim of this paper is to develop a model in order to assess the impact of the EU membership on the Macedonian agriculture. The model is recursive, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model for the meat, dairy and cereals sector in the Republic of Macedonia. It follows the AGMEMOD principles, hence comprising the local features of the Macedonian agriculture. The baseline scenario shows a positive growth of the pig meat, lamb meat and cow milk sectors. On the other hand, in the EU scenarios the most positive effect is expected in the extensive sectors, e.g the sheep and beef productions. The grains show modest growth on the supply side, but the projections on the net-trade demonstrate further deficit increase. The biggest gain in the EU scenarios comes from the higher level of prices, but also from the higher budgetary support. Compared with the experiences of the previous enlargements, the model confirms the expectations about the development of the selected sectors after the EU accession.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotevska, Ana & Dimitrievski, Dragi & Erjavec, Emil, 2011. "Assessing the Future Development of the Macedonian Agriculture: Partial equilibrium model of livestock-feed sector," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114698, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114698
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.114698
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/114698/files/Kotevska_Ana_661.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.114698?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen P. & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Edward & Woma, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. And World Agricultural Outlook," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12805, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
      • Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 7296, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    2. Erjavec, Emil & Donnellan, Trevor, 2005. "Development of the AG-MEMOD Country Level Agricultural Policy Analysis Tool in the New Members States of EU," 89th Seminar, February 2-5, 2005, Parma, Italy 232591, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
    2. Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koc & Gulden Boluk, 2012. "EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(2), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Schmit, Todd M. & Verteramo, Leslie & Tomek, William G., 2009. "Implications of Growing Biofuel Demands on Northeast Livestock Feed Costs," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 200-212, October.
    4. P. Ciaian, 2007. "Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 53(12), pages 565-579.
    5. Srivastava, S.K. & Mathur, V.C. & Sivaramane, N. & Kumar, Ranjit & Hasan, Rooba & Meena, P.C., 2013. "Unravelling Food Basket of Indian Households: Revisiting Underlying Changes and Future Food Demand," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(4), pages 1-17.
    6. Nolte, Stephan & Grethe, Harald, 2012. "Der Markt für Zucker," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(Supplemen), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Searchinger, Timothy D. & Heimlich, Ralph E., 2008. "Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Soy-based US Biodiesel when Factoring in Emissions from Land Use Change," Lifecycle Carbon Footprint of Biofuels Workshop, January 29, 2008, Miami Beach, Florida 49099, Farm Foundation.
    8. van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bartova, Lubica & M'Barek, Robert & Kavcic, Stane, 2007. "EU Agricultural Markets Outlook - Agmemod Approach," 100th Seminar, June 21-23, 2007, Novi Sad, Serbia and Montenegro 162403, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Somwaru, Agapi & Dirkse, Steve, 2012. "Dynamic PEATSim Model: Documenting Its Use in Analyzing Global Commodity Markets," Technical Bulletins 129359, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Nolte, Stephan, 2008. "The Future Of The World Sugar Market--A Spatial Price Equilibrium Analysis," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6663, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Jordan Schwartz & José Luis Guasch & Gordon Wilmsmeier, 2009. "Logistics, Transport and Food Prices in LAC: Policy Guidance for Improving Efficiency and Reducing Costs," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9324, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Kretschmer, Bettina & Narita, Daiju & Peterson, Sonja, 2009. "The economic effects of the EU biofuel target," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Banse, M. & Grethe, H., 2006. "Die Verwendung der logistischen Funktionsform zur Modellierung von internationaler Preistransmission in Nettohandelsmodellen," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    14. Pierre Garello & Pierre Bentata, 2013. "Indirect Land Use Changes (ILUC): The Seen and the Unseen," CAE Working Papers 101, Aix-Marseille Université, CERGAM.
    15. Taylor, Richard D. & Koo, Won W., 2011. "2011 Outlook of the U.S. and World Wheat Industries, 2010-2020," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 115558, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    16. Taylor, Richard D. & Koo, Won W., 2011. "2011 Outlook of the U.S. and World Corn and Soybean Industries, 2010-2020," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 115564, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    17. Durand-Morat, Alvaro & Chavez, Eddie & Wailes, Eric, 2015. "Gm Rice Commercialization And Its Impact On The Global Rice Economy," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196979, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, "undated". "Biofuels: review of policies and impacts," CUDARE Working Papers 120415, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    19. Taylor, Richard D. & Koo, Won W., 2011. "The Impact of Alternative Blending Ratios of Ethanol on the U.S. and World Corn and Soybean Industries," Agricultural Policy Briefs 228986, North Dakota State University, Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies.
    20. Durand-Morat, Alvaro & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddie C., 2011. "Hybrid Rice And Its Impact On Food Security And The Pattern Of Global Production And Trade," 2011 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2011, Corpus Christi, Texas 98845, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.