IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurase/v2y2012i2p1-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Fellmann
  • Myrna Leeuwen
  • Petra Salamon
  • Ali Koc
  • Gulden Boluk

Abstract

Turkey is officially recognized as a candidate country for EU membership and formal accession negotiations started in October 2005. Given the importance of Turkey’s agricultural sector, a Turkish accession to the EU could be expected to impact the agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. This paper provides an in-depth model-based quantitative assessment of the potential impacts of a Turkish EU-membership for agricultural income and commodity markets, focusing in particular on the effects in Turkey. Results show that the main impacts on Turkish agriculture would be a reduction in subsidies, producer prices, and quantities produced. A decrease in agricultural income, especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco farmers), is also projected. In contrast, producers of sheep meat, broilers and dairy milk would benefit from EU accession due to lower feed costs. Moreover, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU. Copyright Eurasia Business and Economics Society 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koc & Gulden Boluk, 2012. "EU Enlargement to Turkey: Potential Effects on Turkey’s Agricultural Income and Markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(2), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:2:y:2012:i:2:p:1-16
    DOI: 10.14208/BF03353834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.14208/BF03353834
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.14208/BF03353834?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddi, 2007. "FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 7296, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    2. Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koç & Gülden Bölük & Andrzej Tabeau & Roberto Esposti & Andrea Bonfiglio & Antonello Lobianco & Kevin Hanrahan, 2011. "Potential impacts on agricultural commodity markets of an EU enlargement to Turkey Extension of the AGMEMOD model towards Turkey and accession scenario," JRC Research Reports JRC60663, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Burrell, Alison M. & Kurzweil, Marianne, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Turkey," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48388, World Bank.
    4. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 16, pages 395-404, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "Linking Large Numbers of Individual National Models: The Case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43539, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Salamon, Petra & Chantreuil, Frederic & Donnellan, Trevor & Erjavec, Emil & Esposti, Roberto & Hanrahan, Kevin F. & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Dol, Wietse & Salputra, Guna, 2008. "How to deal with the challenges of linking a large number of individual national models: the case of the AGMEMOD Partnership," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(08), pages 1-6.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fellmann, T. & von Leeuwen, M. & Salamon, P., 2012. "EU enlargement to Turkey: Potential impacts on agricultural markets and how they are shaped by changes in macroeconomis conditions," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 47, March.
    2. Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koç & Gülden Bölük & Andrzej Tabeau & Roberto Esposti & Andrea Bonfiglio & Antonello Lobianco & Kevin Hanrahan, 2011. "Potential impacts on agricultural commodity markets of an EU enlargement to Turkey Extension of the AGMEMOD model towards Turkey and accession scenario," JRC Research Reports JRC60663, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Guna Salputra & Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver Ledebur, 2013. "The agri-food sector in Russia: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Research Reports JRC76915, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver von Ledebur & Guna Salputra & Olexandr Nekhay & Robert M'barek, 2012. "The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Research Reports JRC71776, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Espinosa, Maria & Gocht, Alexander & Heckelei, Thomas & Paloma, Sergio Gomez y, 2016. "Incorporating farm structural change in models assessing the Common Agricultural Policy: An application in the CAPRI farm type model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1040-1059.
    6. Britz, Wolfgang, 2014. "A New Graphical User Interface Generator for Economic Models and its Comparison to Existing Approaches," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(4).
    7. Angulo, Laura & Salamon, Petra & Banse, Martin & Döring, Ralf & Keller, Matthias & Van Leeuwen, Myrna, 2018. "Future Developments in German Fish Market – Integration of Market Expert Knowledge into a Modelling System," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 9(1), January.
    8. Erjavec, Emil & Chantreuil, Frédéric & Hanrahan, Kevin & Donnellan, Trevor & Salputra, Guna & Kozar, Maja & van Leeuwen, Myrna, 2011. "Policy assessment of an EU wide flat area CAP payments system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1550-1558, July.
    9. Banse, Martin & Salamon, Petra & Ledebur, Oliver von & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Salputra, Guna & Fellmann, Thomas & Nekhay, Olexandr, 2012. "Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122536, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Britz, Wolfgang, 2014. "A New Graphical User Interface Generator for Economic Models and its Comparison to Existing Approaches," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(04), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Xinshen DIAO & Terry L. ROE & A. Erinç YELDAN, 1999. "How Fiscal Mismanagement May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From An Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model For Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 37(1), pages 59-88, March.
    12. Schmit, Todd M. & Verteramo, Leslie & Tomek, William G., 2009. "Implications of Growing Biofuel Demands on Northeast Livestock Feed Costs," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 200-212, October.
    13. Glenn W Harrison & Thomas F Rutherford & David G Tarr, 1997. "Opciones de Política Comercial para Chile: Una Evaluación Cuantitativa," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 34(102), pages 101-137.
    14. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2000. "Joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy: the case of Egypt," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 365-392, April.
    15. T. Chatzivasileiadis & F. Estrada & M. W. Hofkes & R. S. J. Tol, 2019. "Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 1183-1217, March.
    16. Srivastava, S.K. & Mathur, V.C. & Sivaramane, N. & Kumar, Ranjit & Hasan, Rooba & Meena, P.C., 2013. "Unravelling Food Basket of Indian Households: Revisiting Underlying Changes and Future Food Demand," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(4), pages 1-17.
    17. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2006. "Turkish EU Membership: a Simulation Study on Economic Effects," EcoMod2006 272100090, EcoMod.
    18. Maru, Takeshi, 2016. "How Social Customs Restrict EU Accession Effects on Female Labor Participation in Agricultural Production in Rural Adana, Turkey: A Simulation Analysis," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 18.
    19. Hartler, Christina & Laird, Sam, 1999. "The EU model and Turkey: A case for thanksgiving?," WTO Staff Working Papers TPRD-99-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    20. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2005. "Chile´s Regional Arrangements: The Importance of Market Access and Lowering the Tariff to Six Percent," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 9, pages 303-344, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkey; EU Enlargement; Agricultural Markets; Q11; Q13; C45;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:2:y:2012:i:2:p:1-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.