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J. Scott Armstrong

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First Name: J.
Middle Name: Scott
Last Name: Armstrong
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RePEc Short-ID: par65

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Homepage: http://jscottarmstrong.com
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Works

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Working papers

  1. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Jones, Randall J. & Wright, Malcolm, 2008. "Predicting elections from politicians’ faces," MPRA Paper 9150, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  2. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2008. "Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies," MPRA Paper 9829, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  3. Wright, Malcolm & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?," MPRA Paper 4149, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  4. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2007. "Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared," MPRA Paper 4663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  5. Jones, Randall J. & Armstrong, J. Scott & Cuzan, Alfred G., 2007. "Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections," MPRA Paper 5301, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  6. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Soon, Willie, 2007. "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit," MPRA Paper 6317, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  7. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts," MPRA Paper 4361, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  8. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction," General Economics and Teaching 0502014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  9. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys," General Economics and Teaching 0502045, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  10. JS Armstrong & Terry Overton, 2005. "Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys," General Economics and Teaching 0502044, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  11. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal," General Economics and Teaching 0502022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  12. Raymond Hubbard & JS Armstrong, 2005. "Publication Bias Against Null Results," General Economics and Teaching 0502034, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  13. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula," General Economics and Teaching 0502057, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  14. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply," General Economics and Teaching 0502049, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  15. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals," General Economics and Teaching 0502066, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  16. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502025, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  17. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney)," General Economics and Teaching 0502056, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  18. Armstrong JS & Shapiro George, 2005. "Analyzing Quantitative Models," General Economics and Teaching 0502031, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  19. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things," General Economics and Teaching 0502016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  20. JS Armstrong, 2005. "The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply," General Economics and Teaching 0502065, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  21. J. S. Armstrong & R. Brodie, 2005. "Forecasting for Marketing," General Economics and Teaching 0502018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  22. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2005. "The Profitability of Winning," General Economics and Teaching 0502035, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  23. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes et al.: <93>Generalizing about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence,<94>," General Economics and Teaching 0502019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  24. J.S. Armstrong, 2005. "Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful?," General Economics and Teaching 0502007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  25. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Business School Prestige ^V Research versus Teaching," General Economics and Teaching 0502009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  26. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Advocacy and Objectivity in Science," General Economics and Teaching 0502060, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  27. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments)," General Economics and Teaching 0502012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  28. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M- Competition)," General Economics and Teaching 0502026, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  29. J.S. Armstrong, 2005. "Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?," General Economics and Teaching 0502006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  30. J. S. Armstrong & R. Brodie & S. McIntyre, 2005. "Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  31. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed," General Economics and Teaching 0502039, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  32. Raymond Hubbard & JS Armstrong, 2005. "Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing?," General Economics and Teaching 0502038, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  33. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals," General Economics and Teaching 0502053, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  34. JS Armstrong, 2005. "The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing," General Economics and Teaching 0502042, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  35. JS Armstrong & Estella Bee Dagum & Robert Fildes & Spyros Makridakis, 2005. "Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial)," General Economics and Teaching 0502054, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  36. J.S. Armstrong, 2005. "The Graffiti Solution," General Economics and Teaching 0502005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  37. J.S. Armstrong, 2005. "How to Avoid Exploratory Research," General Economics and Teaching 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  38. J.S. Armstrong, 2005. "Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine," General Economics and Teaching 0502004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  39. JS Armstrong, 2005. "The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science," General Economics and Teaching 0502055, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  40. JS Armstrong & Raymond Hubbard, 2005. "Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings?," General Economics and Teaching 0502052, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  41. JS Armstrong & Nicole Coviello & Barbara Safranek, 2005. "Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing?," General Economics and Teaching 0502036, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  42. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0502015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  43. JS Armstrong & Randall L. Schultz, 2005. "Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment," General Economics and Teaching 0502037, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  44. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2005. "Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]

  45. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "How Expert Are the Experts?," General Economics and Teaching 0502027, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  46. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2005. "The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts?," Others 0511003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  47. Raymond Hubbard & JS Armstrong, 2005. "Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary," General Economics and Teaching 0502051, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  48. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982," General Economics and Teaching 0502033, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  49. J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, 2005. "Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]

  50. David Montgomery & JS Armstrong, 2005. "Brand Trial After a Credibility Change," General Economics and Teaching 0502047, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  51. JS Armstrong, 2005. "On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning," General Economics and Teaching 0502064, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  52. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985)," General Economics and Teaching 0502021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  53. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Is Review By Peers As Fair As It Appears?," General Economics and Teaching 0502058, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  54. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors," General Economics and Teaching 0502059, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  55. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988," General Economics and Teaching 0502061, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  56. JS Armstrong & Edward J. Lusk, 2005. "Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis," General Economics and Teaching 0502041, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  57. JS Armstrong & Terry Overton, 2005. "Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase," General Economics and Teaching 0502032, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  58. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Review of Don A. Dillman's Mail and Telephone Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1978," General Economics and Teaching 0502043, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  59. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (published by Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1983))," General Economics and Teaching 0502024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  60. Robert Nason & JS Armstrong, 2005. "Role Conflict: Society’s Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing," General Economics and Teaching 0502046, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  61. J. S. Armstrong & F. Collopy, 2005. "How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls^T," General Economics and Teaching 0502020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  62. Armstrong JS, 2005. "Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973," General Economics and Teaching 0502030, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  63. JS Armstrong, 2005. "Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing," General Economics and Teaching 0502050, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  64. JS Armstrong & Ruth Pagell, 2005. "Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators," General Economics and Teaching 0502048, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  65. J.S. Armstrong, 2005. "On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis," General Economics and Teaching 0502003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  66. JS Armstrong & Philip D. Hutcherson, 2005. "Predicting The Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions," General Economics and Teaching 0502040, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  67. J. S. Armstrong, 2005. "The Devil<92>s Advocate Responds to an MBA Student<92>s Claim that Research Harms Learning," General Economics and Teaching 0502008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  68. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 27/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]

  69. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability," General Economics and Teaching 0412014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  70. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?," General Economics and Teaching 0412001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  71. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance," General Economics and Teaching 0412033, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  72. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Market Share Superstition (Letter)," General Economics and Teaching 0412032, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  73. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings," General Economics and Teaching 0412007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  74. JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship," General Economics and Teaching 0412030, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  75. Fred Collopy & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," General Economics and Teaching 0412004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  76. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making," General Economics and Teaching 0412023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  77. JS Armstrong & Robert Fildes, 2004. "Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods," General Economics and Teaching 0412002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  78. Stephen Dakin & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings," General Economics and Teaching 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  79. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Designing and Using Experiential Exercises," General Economics and Teaching 0412022, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  80. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation," General Economics and Teaching 0412003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  81. Robert Carbone & JS Armstrong, 2004. "Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners," General Economics and Teaching 0412008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  82. JS Armstrong & Fred Collopy, 2004. "Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series," General Economics and Teaching 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  83. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Social Irresponsibility in Management," General Economics and Teaching 0412031, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  84. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2004. "Structured analogies for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    Published as:

  85. JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Graffiti Problem," General Economics and Teaching 0412035, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  86. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Eclectic Research and Construct Validation," General Economics and Teaching 0412028, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  87. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes?," General Economics and Teaching 0412018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  88. JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting," General Economics and Teaching 0412009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  89. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach," General Economics and Teaching 0412026, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  90. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation," General Economics and Teaching 0412027, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  91. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Teacher vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education," General Economics and Teaching 0412020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  92. JS Armstrong & David J. Reibstein, 2004. "Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan?," General Economics and Teaching 0412034, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  93. JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie, 2004. "Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley," General Economics and Teaching 0412017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  94. JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards," General Economics and Teaching 0412019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  95. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations," General Economics and Teaching 0412025, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  96. JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Panalba Role Playing Case," General Economics and Teaching 0412029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  97. JS Armstrong & J. Thomas Yokum, 2004. "Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups," General Economics and Teaching 0412015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  98. JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie & Andrew G. Parsons, 2004. "Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit," General Economics and Teaching 0412013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  99. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984," General Economics and Teaching 0412006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  100. JS Armstrong & Michael C. Grohman, 2004. "A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting," General Economics and Teaching 0412010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  101. JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Natural Learning Project," General Economics and Teaching 0412021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  102. JS Armstrong, 2004. "Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals," General Economics and Teaching 0412011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  103. JS Armstrong & Roderick J. Brodie, 2004. "Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results," General Economics and Teaching 0412016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

  104. JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing," General Economics and Teaching 0412012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

Articles

  1. Tschoegl, Adrian E. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "P.E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Princeton University Press (2006) ISBN 978-0-691-12871-9 Paperback, 352 pp.," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 339-342. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  2. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Significance tests harm progress in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 321-327. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  3. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Statistical significance tests are unnecessary even when properly done and properly interpreted: Reply to commentaries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 335-336. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  4. Evanschitzky, Heiner & Baumgarth, Carsten & Hubbard, Raymond & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Replication research's disturbing trend," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 411-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  5. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Forecasting of software development work effort: Introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 447-445. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  6. Kesten Green & J. Scott Armstrong & Andreas Graefe, 2007. "Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 8, pages 17-20, Fall. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  7. Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Structured analogies for forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-376. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  8. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  9. Armstrong, J. Scott & Fildes, Robert, 2006. "Making progress in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 433-441. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  10. J. Scott Armstrong, 2006. "Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings?," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 5, pages 3-8, Fall. [Downloadable!]

  11. J. Scott Armstrong & Alfred Cuzan, 2006. "The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 3, pages 10-13, February. [Downloadable!]

  12. Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2005. "The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 2, pages 50-52, October. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  13. J. Scott Armstrong, 2005. "The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 1, pages 29-35, June. [Downloadable!]

  14. Alfred Cuzan & J. Scott Armstrong & Randall J. Jones, Jr., 2005. "How We Computed the Pollyvote," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 1, pages 51-52, June. [Downloadable!]

  15. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred & Yokum, J. Thomas, 2005. "Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 25-36. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  16. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2004. "Damped seasonality factors: Introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 525-527. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  17. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2003. "Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: Evidence and proposals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 69-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  18. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2003. "The value of surprising findings for research on marketing," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 91-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  19. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2003. "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,: Ray C. Fair. Stanford University Press: Stanford, CA, 2002, 168 pp., Hardback, ISBN 0-8047-4509-9, $26.00," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 760-761. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  20. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2002. "Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 345-352. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  21. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2002. ""How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus": Batchelor, Roy (2001), Applied Economics, 33, pp. 225-235. E-mail address: R.A.Batchelor@city.bc.uk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 482-483. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  22. Adya, Monica & Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott & Kennedy, Miles, 2001. "Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 143-157. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  23. Armstrong, J Scott & Collopy, Fred, 2001. "Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 273-83, July.

  24. Adya, Monica & Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred & Kennedy, Miles, 2000. "An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 477-484. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  25. Armstrong, J. Scott & Morwitz, Vicki G. & Kumar, V., 2000. "Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 383-397. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  26. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1997. "The impact of empirical accuracy studies on time series analysis and forecasting : R. Fildes and S. Makridakis, 1995, International Statistical Review, 63, 289-308," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 151-153, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  27. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "The validity of employment interviews: A comprehensive review and meta-analysis : Michael A. McDaniel, D.L. Whetzel, F.L. Schmidt and S.D. Maurer, 994, Journal of Applied Psychology, 79, 599-615," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  28. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Journal of business forecasting : John Hanke and Pam Weigand, 1994, What are business schools doing to educate forecasters, Fall, 10-12," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 185-186, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  29. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Journal of economic literature : Clifford Winston, 1993, Economic deregulation: Days of reckoning for microeconomists, 31, 1263-1289," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 183-184, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  30. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series : P. Goodwin and G. Wright, 1994, Omega, 22, 553-568," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 319-321, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  31. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Validity of an honeesty test in predicting theft among convenience store employees : H. John Bernardin and D.K. Cooke, 1993 Academy of Management Journal, 36, 1097-1108," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 318-319, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  32. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Factors affecting new product forecasting accuracy in new firms : William B. Gartner, and Robert J. Thomas, 1993, Journal of Productive Innovation Management, 10, 35-52," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 321-322, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  33. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Publication of research on controversial topics: The early acceptance procedure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 299-302, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  34. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1996. "Predicting insurance agent turnover using a video-based judgement test : Anthony T. Dalessio, 1994, Journal of Business an Psychology, 9, 23-32," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 322-323, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  35. Yokuma, J. Thomas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1995. "Beyond accuracy: Comparison of criteria used to select forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 591-597, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  36. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1994. "Omega 21: G.L. Riddington, (1993), Time varying coefficient models and their forecasting performance, 573-583," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 647-649, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  37. Scott Armstrong, J., 1994. "An analysis of the accuracy ot "trial heat" polls during the 1992 presidential election : Richard R. Lau, 1994, Public opinion quarterly, 58, 2-20," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 473-474, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  38. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1994. "Marketing letters : Barry L., Bayus, (1992), Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time? 3 215-226," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 647-647, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  39. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1994. "Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results : Nada Sanders and Karl B. Manrodt, 1994, interfaces, 24, 92-100," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 471-472, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  40. MacGregor, Donald G. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1994. "Judgmental decomposition: when does it work?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 495-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  41. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1994. "The fertile field of meta-analysis: Cumulative progress in agricultural forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 147-149, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  42. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1993. "Municipal forecasting practice: 'Demand' and 'supply' side perspectives" : Howard A. Frank and Jane McCollough, International Journal of Public Administration, 15 (1992) 1669-1696," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 137-137, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  43. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1993. "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources : Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54 (1990), 609-626," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 137-138, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  44. Armstrong, J. Scoot, 1993. "The uses and abuses of consensus forecasts : Stephen K. McNees,Journal of forecasting, 11 (1992) 703-710," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 431-432, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  45. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1993. "A case study of expert judgment: Economists probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts : Phillip A. Braun and Ilan Yaniv, Journal of behavioral decision making, 5 (1992), 217-231," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 431-431, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  46. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1993. "Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison : R. Nada Sanders, Omega, 20 (1992) 353-364," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 429-430, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  47. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Generalization and communication issues in the use of error measures: A reply," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 107-109, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  48. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Public opinion quarterly : Tom W. Smith and Frederick D. Weil, "Finding public opinion data: A guide to sources" 54 (1990) 609-626," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 279-279, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  49. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Editorial policies for the publication of controversial findings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 543-544, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  50. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 575-582, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  51. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  52. Collopy, Fred & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1992. "Management science : D. Bunn and G. Wright, "Interaction of Judgmental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues and Analysis", 37 (1991) 501-518," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 277-279, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  53. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1991. "A cautionary tale about multiple regression : Milton Friedman (the appendix to "Alternative approaches to analyzing economic data' Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz), American Economic Review 81 (1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 252-252, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  54. Armstrong, J Scott, 1991. "Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices," Journal of Consumer Research: An Interdisciplinary Quarterly, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 251-56, September.

  55. Brodie, Roderick J. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1991. "The forecasting accuracy of market share models using predicted values of competitive marketing behavior : Karel J. Alsem, Peter S.H. Leeflang and Jan C. Reuyl, International Journal of Research in Ma," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 117-118, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  56. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 585-588. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  57. Dakin, Stephen & Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Predicting job performance: A comparison of expert opinion and research findings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 187-194. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  58. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Editorial: Reflections on forecasting in the 1980's," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 467-468. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  59. Armstrong, J. Scott & Shamir, Jacob, 1988. "Public opinion quarterly : Jacob Shamir, preelection polls in Israel: Structural constraints on accuracy, 50 (1986) 62-75," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 167-167. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  60. Armstrong, J. Scott & Rosenstone, Steven J., 1988. "Public opinion quarterly : Steven J. Rosenstone, John Mark Hansen, and Donald R. Kinder, measuring change in personal economic well-being, 50 (1986) 176-192," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 166-167. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  61. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1988. "Organizational behavior and human decision processes : Wagenaar, Willem A. and G.B. Keren, The seat belt paradox: Effect off accepted roles on information seeking,, 38 (1986), 1-6," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 513-513. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  62. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1988. "Journal of personality and social psychology : Osberg, Timothy M. and J. Sidney Shrauger, Self-prediction: Exploring the parameters of accuracy, 51 (1986), 1044-1057," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 514-514. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  63. Armstrong, J. Scott & Buchanan, William, 1988. "Public opinion quarterly : William Buchanan, election predictions: An empirical assessment, 50 (1986) 222-227," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 162-164. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  64. Armstrong, J. Scott & Georgoff, David M., 1988. "Harvard Business Review : David M. Georgoff and Robert G. Murdick, manager's guide to forecasting, 64 (Jan-Feb.) (1986) 110-120," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 164-165. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  65. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1988. "Communication of research on forecasting: The journal," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 321-324. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  66. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1988. "The great depression of 1990 : Ravi Batra, (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985) pp. 235, $14.95," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 493-495. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  67. Armstrong, J. Scott & Lemert, James B., 1988. "Public opinion quarterly : James B. Lemert, picking the winners: Politician vs. voter predictions of two controversial ballot measures, 50 (1986) 208-221," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 165-166. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  68. Armstrong, J. Scott & Brouthers, Lance Eliot, 1988. "International journal of public administration : Lance Eliot Brouthers, parties, ideology and elections: The politics of federal revenues and expenditures forecasting, 8 (1986) 289-314," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 161-162. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  69. Armstrong, J. Scott & McIntyre, Shelby, 1987. "Editorial," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(3-4), pages 351-351. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  70. Makridakis, Spyros & Armstrong, J. Scott & Carbone, Robert & Fildes, Robert, 1985. "From the editors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  71. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1985. "J. Scott Armstrong, Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 years of research, Interfaces 14 (1984), pp. 52-66," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 309-310. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  72. Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 549-64, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  73. Armstrong, J Scott, 1978. "Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 595-600, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  74. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1977. "Social irresponsibility in management," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 185-213, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

NEP Fields

106 papers by this author were announced in NEP, and specifically in the following field reports (number of papers):
  1. NEP-ACC: Accounting & Auditing (3) 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-20
  2. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (10) 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-20 2004-12-20 2004-12-20 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 Author is listed
  3. NEP-CBE: Cognitive & Behavioural Economics (11) 2004-12-12 2004-12-20 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-10-15 2007-07-27 2007-09-09 2007-10-20 2007-12-19 2008-06-21 2008-08-14 Author is listed
  4. NEP-CDM: Collective Decision-Making (3) 2007-10-20 2008-06-21 2008-08-14
  5. NEP-COM: Industrial Competition (1) 2005-07-11
  6. NEP-CUL: Cultural Economics (3) 2004-12-20 2005-04-16 2005-04-16
  7. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (3) 2005-10-15 2007-08-14 2007-10-20
  8. NEP-EDU: Education (4) 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16
  9. NEP-ENE: Energy Economics (1) 2007-08-14
  10. NEP-ENV: Environmental Economics (4) 2004-12-20 2005-04-16 2007-08-14 2007-12-19
  11. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (6) 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-20 Author is listed
  12. NEP-EVO: Evolutionary Economics (1) 2004-12-20
  13. NEP-EXP: Experimental Economics (5) 2004-12-12 2004-12-20 2004-12-20 2004-12-21 2004-12-21 Author is listed
  14. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (8) 2005-10-15 2005-11-19 2007-08-14 2007-09-09 2007-10-20 2007-12-19 2008-06-21 2008-08-14 Author is listed
  15. NEP-HEA: Health Economics (1) 2004-12-20
  16. NEP-HIS: Business, Economic & Financial History (5) 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 Author is listed
  17. NEP-HPE: History & Philosophy of Economics (13) 2004-12-12 2004-12-12 2004-12-20 2004-12-20 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2005-04-16 2007-07-27 Author is listed
  18. NEP-INO: Innovation (1) 2007-07-27
  19. NEP-IPR: Intellectual Property Rights (1) 2007-07-27
  20. NEP-LAB: Labour Economics (1) 2004-12-20
  21. NEP-MIC: Microeconomics (1) 2004-12-20
  22. NEP-MKT: Marketing (2) 2005-07-11 2005-10-15
  23. NEP-PKE: Post Keynesian Economics (1) 2007-07-27
  24. NEP-POL: Positive Political Economics (4) 2004-12-20 2007-10-20 2008-06-21 2008-08-14
  25. NEP-SOG: Sociology of Economics (1) 2007-07-27
  26. NEP-SPO: Sports & Economics (1) 2005-04-16
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This page was last updated on 2008-11-12.

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