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International Institute of Forecasters

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting

Contact information of International Institute of Forecasters:
Web page: http://www.forecasters.org/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this series, please contact (Pam Stroud)
Series handle: repec:for:ijafaa

2009, Issue 14

5-8 Book Review of The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
by Peter Sephton [Downloadable!]
9-11 Fast and Easy Access to Monthly Forecasts
by Roy Pearson [Downloadable!]
12-16 Simpler, Better, and Needed More than Ever
by Robert A. Stahl [Downloadable!]
17-23 How to Track Forecast Accuracy to Guide Forecast Process Improvement
by Jim Hoover [Downloadable!]
25-30 A Systems Approach to Forecasting
by David Orrell & Patrick McSharry [Downloadable!]
31-34 Why Do We Need Complexification? A Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast”
by Roy Batchelor [Downloadable!]
35-38 Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast”
by Paul Goodwin & Robert Fildes [Downloadable!]
39 Reply to Commentaries
by David Orrell & Patrick McSharry [Downloadable!]
40-47 Spare-Parts Forecasting: A Case Study at Hewlett-Packard
by Jerry Z. Shan & Julie Ward & Shelen Jain & Jose Beltran & Feridoun Amirjalayer & Young-Wook Kim [Downloadable!]
48-50 Sparklines: The Tom Thumb of Statistical Graphs
by Tom Yokum [Downloadable!]
51 Forecaster in the Field
by Staff [Downloadable!]

2009, Issue 13

4-6 Review of Adam Gordon’s Book Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions, Manage Uncertainty, and Profit from Change
by David Orrell [Downloadable!]
7-12 Forecasting Sharp Changes
by Roy Batchelor [Downloadable!]
13-22 The Impact of Sales Forecast Game Playing on Supply Chains
by John Mello [Downloadable!]
24-33 Forecastability: Insights from Physics, Graphical Decomposition, and Information Theory
by Peter M. Catt [Downloadable!]
34-40 Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability
by John Boylan [Downloadable!]
41-45 How to Assess Forecastability
by Stephan Kolassa [Downloadable!]
46-50 The U.S. National Intelligence Council’s “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”
by Ira Sohn [Downloadable!]

2009, Issue 12

5-13 The Forecasting Mantra: A Holistic Approach to Forecasting and Planning
by Alec Finney & Martin Joseph [Downloadable!]
14-20 Sales Forecasting: Improving Cooperation Between the Demand People and the Supply People
by Tom Wallace & Bob Stahl [Downloadable!]
21-22 Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies
by John Mello [Downloadable!]
23-25 Sales & Operations Planning - Best Practices: Lessons Learned From Worldwide Companies
by Joseph McConnell [Downloadable!]
26-32 Predicting Recessions: A Regression (Probit) Model Approach
by Peter Sephton [Downloadable!]
33-35 New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts
by Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]
36-40 Percentage Error: What Denominator?
by Kesten Geeen & Len Tashman [Downloadable!]
41-42 Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote
by Andreas Graefe & J. Scott Armstrong & Alfred G. Cuzán & Randall J. Jones, Jr. [Downloadable!]
43 Forecasting Performance of Regression Models in the 2008 Presidential Election
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán [Downloadable!]

2008, Issue 11

4-5 Book Review of Super Crunchers by Ian Ayres
by Roy Batchelor [Downloadable!]
6-14 Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy?
by Stephen Kolassa [Downloadable!]
15-20 Measuring Improvement in Forecast Accuracy: A Case Study
by Robert Rieg [Downloadable!]
21-23 Commentary on Benchmarking
by Teresa McCarthy & Donna Davis & Susan Golicic & John Mentzer [Downloadable!]
24-25 Commentary on Benchmarking
by Jim Hoover [Downloadable!]
26-36 Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects
by Ian Watson-Jones [Downloadable!]
37-40 Commentaries on Overcoming Challenges in Operational Forecasting Projects
by Patrick Wader & Mark A. Moon [Downloadable!]
41-42 Regression Model Forecasts of the U. S. Presidential Election
by Randall Jones, Jr. & Alfred Cuzan [Downloadable!]
43-49 Software Review of Forecast Pro Unlimited: An Off-the-Shelf Solution for Large-Volume Forecasting
by Ulrich Kusters & Janko Thyson [Downloadable!]

2008, Issue 10

5-7 The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction
by Paul Fields [Downloadable!]
9-14 Looking at Tomorrow Today: The What, Why, and How of Futuring for Forecasters
by Roy Pearson [Downloadable!]
15-22 Lessons Learned: Reflections from 25 Years as a Forecasting Consultant
by Antonio García-Ferrer [Downloadable!]
23-27 Life-Cycle Forecasting for New Products: The HP Approach to Forecasting Printer Demand
by Jerry Shan & Matthew Reimann & Fereydoon Safai [Downloadable!]
29-34 Forecasting U.S. Presidential Elections: A Brief Review
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzán [Downloadable!]
35-37 A Quick Tour of Tourism Forecasting
by Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]
38-40 Should We Define Forecast Error as E = F - A Or E = A - F?
by Kesten Green & Len Tashman [Downloadable!]

2008, Issue 9

5-7 Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris’s Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning
by Roy Batchelor [Downloadable!]
8-10 Predicting the Demand for New Products
by Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]
12-17 The Value of Information Sharing in the Retail Supply Chain: Two Case Studies
by Tonya Boone & Ram Ganeshan [Downloadable!]
18-24 Innovations in Sales Forecasting for Large-Scale Retailers
by Bruce Andrews & James Bennett & Lindsey Howe & Brooks Newkirk & Joseph Ogrodowczyk [Downloadable!]
25-29 Prediction Markets – A Guide to Practical Adoption in the Pharmaceutical Industry
by Carol Gebert [Downloadable!]
30-32 Prediction Markets – Defining Events and Motivating Participation
by Andreas Graefe [Downloadable!]
33-35 A Primer on Prediction Markets
by Joe Miles [Downloadable!]
36-41 Monte Carlo Simulation/Risk Analysis on a Spreadsheet: Review of Three Software Packages
by Sam Sugiyama [Downloadable!]
43-48 “Been There, Done That”: Perils, Pitfalls, and Promises of Long-Term Projections
by Ira Sohn [Downloadable!]

2007, Issue 8

5-10 Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies
by Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]
11-16 A Guide to Delphi
by Gene Rowe [Downloadable!]
17-20 Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
by Kesten Green & J. Scott Armstrong & Andreas Graefe [Downloadable!]
22-24 Key Assumptions in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error. A commentary on Peter Catt’s article, Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error, in Issue 7 of Foresight
by John Boylan [Downloadable!]
25-26 Use of the Normal Distribution in Calculating the Cost of Forecast Error
by Thomas R. Willemain [Downloadable!]
26-27 Supply Risk and Costing Challenges
by Michael E. Smith [Downloadable!]
28 Lost Sales and Customer Service
by Scott Roy [Downloadable!]
29-30 Reply to “Cost of Forecast Error” Commentaries
by Peter M. Catt [Downloadable!]
31-35 How to Project Patient Persistency
by Ka Lok Lee & Peter Fader & Bruce Hardie [Downloadable!]
36-40 The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
by Allan J. Lichtman [Downloadable!]
41-44 Bayesian Forecasting Methods for Short Time Series
by Enrique de Alba & Manuel Mendoza [Downloadable!]
45-46 Book Review of Mirror, Mirror, Who’s the Best Forecaster of Them All? (by Michael F. Bryan and Linsey Molloy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
by Bill Bassin [Downloadable!]

2007, Issue 7

5-10 Assessing the Cost of Forecast Error: A Practical Example
by Peter Maurice Catt [Downloadable!]
11-16 An Expanded Prediction-Realization Diagram for Assessing Forecast Errors
by Roy Pearson [Downloadable!]
17-22 Use Scaled Errors Instead of Percentage Errors in Forecast Evaluations
by Lauge Valentin [Downloadable!]
23-27 S&OP, Forecasting, and the Knowledge-Creating Company
by John Mello & Terry Esper [Downloadable!]
29-35 Decision-Directed Forecasting for Major Disruptions: The Impact of 9/11 on Las Vegas Gaming Revenues
by Stephen Custer & Don Miller [Downloadable!]
36-40 How to Get Good Forecasts from Bad Data
by Ellen Bonnell [Downloadable!]
41-44 The Forecaster as Leader of the Forecasting Process
by James Borneman [Downloadable!]
45-48 Forecasting Software: A Progress Report for the First Seven Years of the 21st Century
by Jim Hoover [Downloadable!]
49-51 Book Review of Forecasting the Retail Supply Chain, by Andre Martin, Mike Doherty, and Jeff Harrop
by Carolyn Allmon [Downloadable!]
53-55 Supermarket Forecasting: Check Out Three New Approaches
by Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]

2007, Issue 6

3-10 Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster
by Chris Chatfield [Downloadable!]
12-15 Minimum Sample Size requirements for Seasonal Forecasting Models
by Rob J. Hyndman & Andrey V. Kostenko [Downloadable!]
16-20 Forecasting Short Seasonal Time Series Using Aggregate and Analogous Series
by Michael Leonard [Downloadable!]
21-23 Seasonality Shrinkage Procedures for Small Samples
by Dan Williams [Downloadable!]
24-25 Constant vs. Changing Seasonality
by Philip Hans Franses [Downloadable!]
26-28 Hot New Research: Recent Studies on Forecasting Know-How, Training, and Information Sharing
by Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]
29-37 Forecast Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation
by Sam Sugiyama [Downloadable!]
38-39 Book Review of Kenneth Kahn's New Product Forecasting: An Applied Approach
by Steven Schnaars [Downloadable!]
40-43 Advantages of the MAD/Mean Ratio over the MAPE
by Stephan Kolassa & Wolfgang Schütz [Downloadable!]
45-50 Forecasting the 2006 Democratic Takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives
by Carl E. Klarner & Stan Buchanan [Downloadable!]

2006, Issue 5

3-8 Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings?
by J. Scott Armstrong [Downloadable!]
16-21 To Include or Exclude an Explanatory Variable: Beware of Rules of Thumb
by Peter Kennedy [Downloadable!]
27-31 Oliva and Watson describe how organizational biases arise from the different incentives, agendas, and blind spots of the various functional areas of a business and how they compromise forecast accuracy and disrupt the supply chain process. They present a case study-the Leitax Corporation-of how one organization successfully used consensus forecasting to manage against functional blind spots and incentive misalignments. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2006
by Rogelio Oliva & Noel Watson [Downloadable!]
32-36 How to Predict a Movie's Success at the Box Office
by Ramesh Sharda & Dursun Delen [Downloadable!]
37-42 A Retrospect on Forecasting Midterm Elections to the U. S. House of Representatives
by Randall J. Jones, Jr. & Alfred G. Cuzan [Downloadable!]
43-44 Software Reviews: Forecasting with SAP
by Ulrich Kusters, Foresight Software Editor [Downloadable!]
45-50 The New SAP Forecasting and Replenishment Solution: Is It an Improvement over mySAP ERP?
by Norman Gotz & Carsten Kohler [Downloadable!]
51-54 Forecasting for WorldWide Supply Chain Processes with SAP's APO
by Christoph Seeger [Downloadable!]

2006, Issue 4

6-10 Nano Forecasting: Forecasting Techniques for Short-Time Intervals
by Jay Minnucci [Downloadable!]
11-15 Forecasting Call Flow in a Direct Marketing Environment
by Peter Varisco [Downloadable!]
16-18 Forecasting Weekly Effects of Recurring Irregular Occurrences
by Dan Rickwalder [Downloadable!]
21-25 Transformation Lessons from Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.: Managing the Introduction of a Structured Forecast Process
by Simon Clarke [Downloadable!]
26-30 Breaking Down the Barriers to Forecast Process Improvement
by Mark Moon [Downloadable!]
32-35 Measuring Forecast Accuracy: Omissions in Today's Forecasting Engines and Demand-Planning Software
by Jim Hoover [Downloadable!]
36-38 Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demands: Look at the Entire Distribution of Demands
by Tom Willemain [Downloadable!]
39-42 Accuracy and Accuracy Implication Metrics for Intermittent Demand
by John Boylan & Aris Syntetos [Downloadable!]
43-46 Another Look at Forecast Accuracy Metrics for Intermittent Demand
by Rob J. Hyndman [Downloadable!]
47-52 Lessons from Thomas Edison's Technological and Social Forecasts
by Steven Schnaars [Downloadable!]
53-56 Tips for Forecasting Semi-new products
by Bill Tonetti [Downloadable!]
57-59 Book Review of Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. By Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2204)
by Anirvan Banerji [Downloadable!]

2006, Issue 3

5-9 Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
by Allan Lichtman [Downloadable!]
10-13 The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
by J. Scott Armstrong & Alfred Cuzan [Downloadable!]
16-21 Measuring the Efficiency of an Informal Forecasting Process
by Robert Samohyl [Downloadable!]
22-26 Forecasting as a Business Process Diagnostic
by Mario Sepulveda-Guzman & Michael Smith & George Mechling [Downloadable!]
27-32 Increasing the Credibility of Your Forecasts: 7 Suggestions
by Roy Pearson [Downloadable!]
33-37 Credit Scoring: The State of the Art
by Lyn Thomas [Downloadable!]
39-43 Incorrect Nonlinear Trend Curves in Excel
by Rick Hesse, [Downloadable!]
44-45 The Unreliability of Excel's Statistical Procedures
by Bruce McCullough [Downloadable!]
46-47 On the Use and Abuse of Microsoft Excel
by Paul Fields [Downloadable!]
48-50 Book Review of Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market, by James Glassman and Kevin Hassett (1999)
by Roy Batchelor [Downloadable!]

2005, Issue 2

6-11 Six Steps to Overcome Bias in the Forecast Process
by Elaine Deschamps [Downloadable!]
12-15 The Impact of Corporate Culture on Sales Forecasting
by John Mello [Downloadable!]
16-17 How to Assess the Effect of Organizational Politics on the Efficiency of the Forecasting Process
by Michael Gilliland [Downloadable!]
24-26 Managerial Judgment: Best as an Input to the Statistical Forecasting Process
by Rob Dhuyvetter [Downloadable!]
27-32 My Life as Soothsayer: 25 Years of Forecasting at British Telecom
by Clive Mason [Downloadable!]
33-36 To Include or Not to Include an Explanatory Variable: That is the Question
by William Bassin [Downloadable!]
37-43 A Primer on Forecasting with Neural Networks
by Roy Batchelor [Downloadable!]
44-47 Demand Works Express 3.5: Filling a Gap in the Demand Planning Software Spectrum
by Jim Hoover [Downloadable!]
48-49 Book Review of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment: How to Create a Supply Chain Advantage (Dirk Seifert, 2003)
by Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]
50-52 The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?
by Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong [Downloadable!]

2005, Issue 1

8-12 How to Integrate Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts
by Paul Goodwin [Downloadable!]
13-17 Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts
by Dilek Onkal & M. Sinan Gonul [Downloadable!]
18-20 Relative Merits of Different Ways of Combining Judgment with Statistical Forecasts
by Nigel Harvey [Downloadable!]
24-28 The Sales Forecasting Evolution at Brooks Sports
by Thomas Ross [Downloadable!]
29-35 The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy
by J. Scott Armstrong [Downloadable!]
36-42 Intermittent and Lumpy Demand: A Forecasting Challenge
by John Boylan [Downloadable!]
43-46 Case Study: Integrating Consumer Demand to Improve Shipments Forecasts
by Charles W. Chase, Jr. [Downloadable!]
47-49 How to Evaluate the Forecasting Ability of Demand-Planning Software
by Jim Hoover [Downloadable!]
49-50 Book Review of Demand Management Best Practices by Colleen Crum with George Palmatier (2003)
by Nada Sanders [Downloadable!]
51-52 How We Computed the Pollyvote
by Alfred Cuzan & J. Scott Armstrong & Randall J. Jones, Jr. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-10-29.

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