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An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'

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  • Niek Nahuis

Abstract

This article examines the usefulness of the NAIRCU, the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization' as a demand indicator of inflation for eight European countries. So far the NAIRCU has been estimated for the USA only, where it serves as a useful indicator for inflation. In most European countries, deviations from the equilibrium level of capacity utilization influence inflation significantly. Further, the results not only indicate that in more recent periods the NAIRCU has shifted upward, indicating higher efficiency of the production process, but also that confidence intervals have increased over time reducing the usefulness of the NAIRCU somewhat.

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  • Niek Nahuis, 2003. "An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1339-1344.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:11:p:1339-1344
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684032000095947
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    1. Kamel Helali, 2018. "A New Assessment of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilization in Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(68), pages 54-77, June.
    2. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Aleksejs Meļihovs & Anna Zasova, 2009. "Assessment of the natural rate of unemployment and capacity utilisation in Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 25-46, December.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/140, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Enrique Alberola & Ángel Estrada & Daniel Santabárbara, 2014. "Growth and imbalances in Spain: a reassessment of the output gap," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 333-356, August.
    6. Federico Bassi, 2016. "Aggregate demand, sunk costs and discontinuous adjustments in an amended new consensus model," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 313-335, July.
    7. Cynthia Bansak & Norman Morin & Martha Starr, 2007. "Technology, Capital Spending, And Capacity Utilization," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(3), pages 631-645, July.
    8. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2015. "The share of wages in national income and its effects in the short and long run economic activity and growth," Working Papers 0215, Universidad Iberoamericana, Department of Economics.
    10. Yang, Qing & Hou, Xiaochao & Zhang, Lei, 2018. "Measurement of natural and cyclical excess capacity in China's coal industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 270-278.
    11. Pejman Bahramian & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2021. "Does Capacity Utilization Predict Inflation? A Wavelet Based Evidence from United States," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1103-1125, December.
    12. Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
    13. Enrique Alberola & Ángel Estrada & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "Growth beyond imbalances. Sustainable growth rates and output gap reassessment," Working Papers 1313, Banco de España.

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