IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedder/y1997iqip14-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there a stable relationship between capacity utilization and inflation?

Author

Listed:
  • Chih-Ping Chang
  • Kenneth M. Emery

Abstract

Many policymakers and financial market participants use the Federal Reserve's industrial capacity utilization rate as an indicator of future changes in inflation. During the past few years, however, the usefulness of the utilization rate as an inflation indicator has come under scrutiny. ; In this article, Kenneth Emery and Chih-Ping Chang examine capacity utilization's power to predict changes in inflation, with a focus on whether the relationship is stable over time. They find that while there was a positive forecasting relationship between capacity utilization and changes in consumer price inflation before 1983, this relationship has substantially weakened since the end of 1982. In fact, after 1982 there is no evidence that high capacity utilization rates predict increases in consumer price inflation. Although the results are similar for changes in producer price inflation, the deterioration in the relationship is not as severe. So there is still some evidence that, after 1982, capacity utilization helps to predict changes in producer price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Chih-Ping Chang & Kenneth M. Emery, 1997. "Is there a stable relationship between capacity utilization and inflation?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q I, pages 14-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1997:i:qi:p:14-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/5730/item/583779/toc/527820
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franz, Wolfgang & Gordon, Robert J., 1993. "German and American wage and price dynamics : Differences and common themes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 719-754, May.
    2. Duca, John V., 1996. "Inflation, unemployment, and duration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 293-298, September.
    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 189-236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Evan F. Koenig & Mark A. Wynne, 1994. "Is there an output-inflation trade-off?," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Aug, pages 1-4.
    5. Mary G. Finn, 1995. "Is \\"high\\" capacity utilization inflationary?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-16.
    6. Nathan S. Balke & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Understanding the price puzzle," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 15-26.
    7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    8. repec:fip:feddse:y:1994:i:aug:p:1-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Emery, Kenneth M., 1994. "Inflation persistence and Fisher effects: Evidence of a regime change," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 141-152, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Razek, Noha & Galvani, Valentina & Rajan, Surya & McQuinn, Brian, 2023. "Can U.S. strategic petroleum reserves calm a tight market exacerbated by the Russia–Ukraine conflict?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    2. Rudy Fichtenbaum, 2003. "Is there a natural level of capacity utilization?," Forum for Social Economics, Springer;The Association for Social Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 45-62, September.
    3. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Lefteris Tsoulfidis & Theologos Dergiades, 2007. "Estimating Capacity Utilization Using a SVAR Model: An Application to the US and Canadian Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(4), pages 1-12.
    5. Niek Nahuis, 2003. "An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1339-1344.
    6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Developing Country Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0407031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tsoulfidis, L. & Dergiades, Th., 2006. "The Inflation-Capacity Utilization Conundrum: Evidence from the Canadian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    8. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "A Theoretical Model of Industrial Economy Inflationary Dynamics," Macroeconomics 0408007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Yang, Qing & Hou, Xiaochao & Zhang, Lei, 2018. "Measurement of natural and cyclical excess capacity in China's coal industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 270-278.
    10. Sakarya, Burchan & Yurtoglu, Hasan, 2000. "Capacity Utilization and Inflation in Turkey," MPRA Paper 69192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pejman Bahramian & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2021. "Does Capacity Utilization Predict Inflation? A Wavelet Based Evidence from United States," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1103-1125, December.
    12. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Wage Growth Puzzle and Capacity Utilization," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-31, March.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2007:i:4:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sakarya, Burchan & Yurtoglu, Hasan, 2000. "Capacity Utilization and Inflation in Turkey," MPRA Paper 69192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arto Kovanen, 2019. "Wage Growth Puzzle and Capacity Utilization," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-31, March.
    4. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    6. Duca, John V., 1996. "Inflation, unemployment, and duration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 293-298, September.
    7. Evan F. Koenig, 2001. "What goes down must come up: understanding time-variation in the NAIRU," Working Papers 0101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Hanson, Michael S., 2004. "The "price puzzle" reconsidered," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1385-1413, October.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    10. M.A. Akhtar, 1995. "Monetary policy goals and central bank independence," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(195), pages 423-439.
    11. Franz, Wolfgang & Oser, Ursula & Winker, Peter, 1994. "A Macroeconometric Disequilibrium Analysis of Current and Future Migration from Eastern Europe into West Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 217-234.
    12. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    13. Ellis W. Tallman & Naveen Chandra, 1996. "The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9606, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Jamie Armour & Walter Engert & Ben Fung, 1996. "Overnight Rate Innovations as a measure of monetary Policy Shocks in Vector Autoregressions," Staff Working Papers 96-4, Bank of Canada.
    15. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2012. "Productivity Growth And The Phillips Curve: A Reassessment Of The Us Experience," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 344-366, July.
    16. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    17. Franz, Wolfgang, 1994. "Central and East European labor markets in transition: Developments, causes, and cures," Discussion Papers 19, University of Konstanz, Center for International Labor Economics (CILE).
    18. Abdullah Ghazo, 2021. "Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 70-77, May.
    19. Franz Wolfgang, 2001. "Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(3), pages 256-284, June.
    20. Andreas Hornstein, 2002. "Towards a theory of capacity utilization: shiftwork and the workweek of capital," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 65-86.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Industrial capacity; Inflation (Finance);

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1997:i:qi:p:14-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.