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How Fiscal (Mis)-Management May Impede Trade Reform: Lessons From an Intertemporal, Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Model for Turkey

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Author Info
Diao, X.
Roe, T.L.
Yeldan, A.E.

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Abstract

We utilize a multi-sector general equilibrium model based on intertemporally optimizing agents to study issues of trade liberalization and fiscal adjustments in the context of the Turkish economy. A key feature of the model is its explicit recognition of the distortionary consequences of excessive borrowing requirements of the public sector through increased domestic interest costs. The model results suggest that the postponement of adjustment to growing public debt and fiscal imbalances could be detrimental; and that in the absence of coordinated fiscal reforms, the welfare gains expected from trade liberalization may significantly be negated.

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Paper provided by University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center in its series Bulletins with number 7459.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:ags:umedbu:7459

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Keywords: International Relations/Trade;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2000. "An Inquiry on General Equilibrium Effects of MERCOSUR--An Intertemporal World Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 557-588, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Miles, Marc A, 1978. "Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Monetary Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 428-36, June.
  3. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Eisner, Robert, 1989. "Budget Deficits: Rhetoric and Reality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 73-93, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don E, 1981. "Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 12-30, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bernheim, B Douglas & Bagwell, Kyle, 1988. "Is Everything Neutral?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 308-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1997. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 861-870, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Yeldan, A. Erinc, 1997. "Financial liberalization and fiscal repression in Turkey: Policy analysis in a CGE model with financial markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1982. "The order of economic liberalization: Lessons from Chile and Argentina," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 159-186, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, Erinc, 1997. "On Turkey's trade policy: Is a customs union with Europe enough?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 871-880, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Tanzi, Vito & Blejer, Mario I., 1982. "Inflation, interest rate policy, and currency substitutions in developing economies: A discussion of some major issues," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 781-789, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1989. "A Neoclassical Perspective on Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 55-72, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Boratav, Korkut & Turel, Oktar & Yeldan, Erinc, 1996. "Dilemmas of structural adjustment and environmental policies under instability: Post-1980 Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 373-393, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Mercenier, J. & Da Conceicao Sampaio de Souza, M., 1991. "Structural Adjustment and Growth in a Highy Indebted Market Economy: Brazil," Cahiers de recherche 9103, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  20. Goulder, Lawrence H. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1989. "Tax policy, asset prices, and growth : A general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 265-296, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Faruk Selcuk, 1996. "Seignorage and Dollarization in a High Inflation Economy : Evidence from Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 967, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
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  1. Bayar, Ali. & Diao, Xinshen & Yeldan, A. Erinc, 2000. "An intertemporal, multi-region general equilibrium model of agricultural trade liberalization in the South Mediterranean NICs, Turkey, and the European Union," TMD discussion papers 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Mohamed A. Marouani, 2005. "The Impact of the Multifiber Agreement Phaseout on Unemployment in Tunisia: a Prospective Dynamic Analysis," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 39, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
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