IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v64y2023i3d10.1007_s00181-022-02288-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The short- and medium-term distributional effects of the German minimum wage reform

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Caliendo

    (University of Potsdam, IZA, DIW, IAB)

  • Alexandra Fedorets

    (German Institute for Economic Research)

  • Malte Preuss

    (German Council of Economic Experts)

  • Carsten Schröder

    (SOEP at DIW and Free University Berlin)

  • Linda Wittbrodt

    (University of Potsdam)

Abstract

This study quantifies the distributional effects of the minimum wage introduced in Germany in 2015. Using detailed Socio-Economic Panel survey data, we assess changes in the hourly wages, working hours, and monthly wages of employees who were entitled to be paid the minimum wage. We employ a difference-in-differences analysis, exploiting regional variation in the “bite” of the minimum wage. At the bottom of the hourly wage distribution, we document wage growth of 9% in the short term and 21% in the medium term. At the same time, we find a reduction in working hours, such that the increase in hourly wages does not lead to a subortionate increase in monthly wages. We conclude that working hours adjustments play an important role in the distributional effects of minimum wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Caliendo & Alexandra Fedorets & Malte Preuss & Carsten Schröder & Linda Wittbrodt, 2023. "The short- and medium-term distributional effects of the German minimum wage reform," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 1149-1175, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:64:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-022-02288-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-022-02288-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-022-02288-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-022-02288-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    2. Aretz Bodo & Arntz Melanie & Gregory Terry, 2013. "The Minimum Wage Affects Them All: Evidence on Employment Spillovers in the Roofing Sector," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 282-315, August.
    3. Caliendo, Marco & Fedorets, Alexandra & Preuss, Malte & Schröder, Carsten & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2018. "The short-run employment effects of the German minimum wage reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 46-62.
    4. Mark B. Stewart, 2012. "Wage inequality, minimum wage effects, and spillovers," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(4), pages 616-634, October.
    5. Caliendo Marco & Wittbrodt Linda & Schröder Carsten, 2019. "The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 257-292, August.
    6. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 22-37, October.
    7. Joachim R. Frick & Markus M. Grabka & Jan Marcus, 2007. "Editing and Multiple Imputation of Item-Non-Response in the 2002 Wealth Module of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Data Documentation 18, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2019. "The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 53-67.
    9. Hanna Frings, 2013. "The Employment Effect of Industry-Specific, Collectively Bargained Minimum Wages," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(3), pages 258-281, August.
    10. Alan Manning, 2021. "The Elusive Employment Effect of the Minimum Wage," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    11. Arindrajit Dube, 2019. "Minimum Wages and the Distribution of Family Incomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 268-304, October.
    12. Richard Dickens & Alan Manning, 2004. "Spikes and spill-overs: The impact of the national minimum wage on the wage distribution in a low-wage sector," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(494), pages 95-101, March.
    13. Patrick Burauel & Marco Caliendo & Alexandra Fedorets & Markus M. Grabka & Carsten Schröder & Jürgen Schupp & Linda Wittbrodt, 2017. "Minimum Wage Not yet for Everyone: On the Compensation of Eligible Workers before and after the Minimum Wage Reform from the Perspective of Employees," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 7(49), pages 509-522.
    14. Schank, Thorsten & Bossler, Mario, 2020. "Wage inequality in Germany after the minimum wage introduction," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224543, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. David H. Autor & Alan Manning & Christopher L. Smith, 2016. "The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 58-99, January.
    16. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," Working Papers 680, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    17. Burauel, Patrick & Caliendo, Marco & Grabka, Markus M. & Obst, Cosima & Preuss, Malte & Schröder, Carsten & Shupe, Cortnie, 2020. "The Impact of the German Minimum Wage on Individual Wages and Monthly Earnings," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 240(2/3), pages 201-231.
    18. Coen N. Teulings, 2003. "The contribution of minimum wages to increasing wage inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(490), pages 801-833, October.
    19. Christian Dustmann & Johannes Ludsteck & Uta Schönberg, 2009. "Revisiting the German Wage Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(2), pages 843-881.
    20. repec:fth:prinin:300 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel & Roth, Duncan & Seidel, Tobias, 2018. "The regional effects of Germany’s national minimum wage," CEPR Discussion Papers 13005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Sergio Firpo & Nicole M. Fortin & Thomas Lemieux, 2009. "Unconditional Quantile Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 953-973, May.
    23. David S. Lee, 1999. "Wage Inequality in the United States During the 1980s: Rising Dispersion or Falling Minimum Wage?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 977-1023.
    24. Teresa Backhaus & Kai-Uwe Müller, 2019. "Does the German Minimum Wage Help Low Income Households?: Evidence from Observed Outcomes and the Simulation of Potential Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1805, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
    26. David Card, 1992. "Do Minimum Wages Reduce Employment? A Case Study of California, 1987–89," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 38-54, October.
    27. Lesch, Hagen & Mayer, Alexander & Schmid, Lisa, 2014. "Das deutsche Mindestlohngesetz: Eine erste ökonomische Bewertung," IW policy papers 4/2014, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    28. Bachmann, Ronald & Bonin, Holger & Boockmann, Bernhard & Demir, Gökay & Felder, Rahel & Isphording, Ingo & Kalweit, René & Laub, Natalie & Vonnahme, Christina & Zimpelmann, Christian, 2020. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Löhne und Arbeitszeiten: Studie im Auftrag der Mindestlohnkommission," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 222998.
    29. Burauel Patrick & Grabka Markus M. & Schröder Carsten & Caliendo Marco & Obst Cosima & Preuss Malte, 2020. "The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Working Hours," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(2-3), pages 233-267, April.
    30. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2022. "Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 384-417, October.
    31. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Roth, Duncan & Seidel, Tobias, 2018. "The regional effects of Germany’s national minimum wage," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 127-130.
    32. Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    33. David Neumark & DMark Schweitzer & DaWilliam Wascher, 2004. "Minimum Wage Effects throughout the Wage Distribution," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(2).
    34. Amlinger, Marc & Bispinck, Reinhard & Schulten, Thorsten, 2016. "Ein Jahr Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Erfahrungen und Perspektiven [The German Minimum Wage: Experiences and perspectives after one year]," WSI Reports 28, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    35. Goebel Jan & Grabka Markus M. & Liebig Stefan & Kroh Martin & Richter David & Schröder Carsten & Schupp Jürgen, 2019. "The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(2), pages 345-360, April.
    36. Marion König & Joachim Möller, 2009. "Impacts of minimum wages: a microdata analysis for the German construction sector," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(7), pages 716-741, November.
    37. Dolton, Peter & Bondibene, Chiara Rosazza & Stops, Michael, 2015. "Identifying the employment effect of invoking and changing the minimum wage: A spatial analysis of the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 54-76.
    38. Michael Funke & Annekatrin Niebuhr, 2005. "Regional Geographic Research and Development Spillovers and Economic Growth: Evidence from West Germany," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 143-153.
    39. Karl Brenke, 2014. "Mindestlohn: Zahl der anspruchsberechtigten Arbeitnehmer wird weit unter fünf Millionen liegen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(5), pages 71-77.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laszlo Goerke & Markus Pannenberg, 2023. "Minimum Wage Non-compliance: The Role of Co-determination," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1199, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Caliendo & Alexandra Fedorets & Malte Preuss & Carsten Schröder & Linda Wittbrodt, 2017. "The Short-Term Distributional Effects of the German Minimum Wage Reform," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 948, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Caliendo Marco & Wittbrodt Linda & Schröder Carsten, 2019. "The Causal Effects of the Minimum Wage Introduction in Germany – An Overview," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 257-292, August.
    3. Bossler, Mario & Schank, Thorsten, 2020. "Wage Inequality in Germany after the Minimum Wage Introduction," IZA Discussion Papers 13003, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Caliendo, Marco & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2022. "Did the minimum wage reduce the gender wage gap in Germany?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Roupakias, Stelios, 2022. "Employment and distributional effects of Greece’s national minimum wage," MPRA Paper 114244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Teresa Backhaus & Kai-Uwe Müller, 2019. "Does the German Minimum Wage Help Low Income Households?: Evidence from Observed Outcomes and the Simulation of Potential Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1805, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Fedorets, Alexandra & Shupe, Cortnie, 2021. "Great expectations: Reservation wages and minimum wage reform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 397-419.
    8. Backhaus, Teresa & Müller, Kai-Uwe, 2019. "Does the German minimum wage benefit low income households?," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203585, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Biewen, Martin & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Rümmele, Marian, 2022. "Using Distribution Regression Difference-in-Differences to Evaluate the Effects of a Minimum Wage Introduction on the Distribution of Hourly Wages and Hours Worked," IZA Discussion Papers 15534, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Medrano-Adán, Luis & Salas-Fumás, Vicente, 2023. "Do minimum wages deliver what they promise? Effects of minimum wage on employment, output, and income inequality from occupational choice theory," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 366-383.
    11. Philipp Berge & Hanna Frings, 2020. "High-impact minimum wages and heterogeneous regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 701-729, August.
    12. Isphording, Ingo E. & Caliendo, Marco & Mahlstedt, Robert & Pestel, Nico & Zimpelmann, Christian, 2022. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf individuelle Beschäftigungsbewegungen und betriebliche Lohnstrukturen in den Jahren 2015 bis 2020," IZA Research Reports 133, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Sebastian Link, 2019. "The Price and Employment Response of Firms to the Introduction of Minimum Wages," CESifo Working Paper Series 7575, CESifo.
    14. Demir, Gökay, 2023. "Labor Market Frictions and Spillover Effects from Publicly Announced Sectoral Minimum Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 16204, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Oliveira, Carlos, 2021. "How is the Minimum Wage Shaping the Wage Distribution: Minimum Wage, Spillovers, and Wage Inequality in Portugal," MPRA Paper 112534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Demir, Gökay, 2022. "Labor market frictions and spillover effects from publicly announced sectoral minimum wages," Ruhr Economic Papers 985, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    17. Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    18. Cengiz, Doruk & Dube, Arindrajit & Lindner, Attila & Zipperer, Ben, 2018. "The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs: evidence from the United States using a bunching estimator," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88682, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Sotomayor, Orlando J., 2021. "Can the minimum wage reduce poverty and inequality in the developing world? Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    20. Bachmann, Ronald & Boockmann, Bernhard & Gonschor, Myrielle & Kalweit, René & Klauser, Roman & Laub, Natalie & Rulff, Christian & Vonnahme, Christina, 2022. "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Löhne und Arbeitszeiten," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 264288.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; Wage distribution; Hourly wages; Inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:64:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-022-02288-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.