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Modelling the Economic Impact of International Tourism on the Chinese Economy: A CGE Analysis of the Beijing 2008 Olympics

Author

Listed:
  • Shina Li

    (UK Centre for Events Management, Leeds Metropolitan University, Leeds, UK)

  • Adam Blake

    (School of Services Management, Bournemouth University, Talbot Campus, Poole BH12 5BB, UK)

  • Chris Cooper

    (Business School, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK)

Abstract

International inbound tourism to China has grown phenomenally since 1980 and the hosting of the Olympics in 2008 was an important milestone. This paper takes the first step in applying computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling to forecasting the economic contribution of tourism generated by the Beijing Olympics. CGE modelling has been widely applied to different tourism issues in many countries. In China, it has been used in fields such as taxation and international trade. However, economic impact studies on China's tourism using CGE modelling have not been found. The paper includes two types of estimations: ex ante and ex post . The ex ante estimation was conducted before the Beijing Olympics and thus predicted the impact of international tourism based on historical data, such as previous literature and historical statistics. The ex post estimation was conducted several months after the Beijing Olympics and the estimation was based on up-to-date statistics published by the China National Tourism Administration. The economic impact generated from the two types of estimations is compared. It was found that, while the economic impact of international tourism was predicted to be positive in the ex ante estimation, this impact was analysed as negative in the ex post estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shina Li & Adam Blake & Chris Cooper, 2011. "Modelling the Economic Impact of International Tourism on the Chinese Economy: A CGE Analysis of the Beijing 2008 Olympics," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 279-303, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:279-303
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2011.0025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    2. Adam Blake & M. Thea Sinclair & Guntur Sugiyarto, 2003. "Quantifying the Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease on Tourism and the UK Economy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(4), pages 449-465, December.
    3. James A Giesecke & John R Madden, 2007. "The Sydney Olympics, seven years on: an ex-post dynamic CGE assessment," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-168, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Li, ShiNa & Li, Hengyun & Song, Haiyan & Lundberg, Christine & Shen, Shujie, 2017. "The economic impact of on-screen tourism: The case of The Lord of the Rings and the Hobbit," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 177-187.
    3. Massiani, Jerome, 2019. "CGE Analysis of Mega Events: A Timely Issue," Conference papers 333109, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Nicholas Apergis & Chi Keung Lau, 2022. "Hotel Revenue Convergence: Evidence Across Star Hotels in Chinese Provinces," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 37-51, June.
    5. Tien Duc Pham & Son Nghiem & Larry Dwyer, 2018. "The economic impacts of a changing visa fee for Chinese tourists to Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(1), pages 109-126, February.
    6. Li, ShiNa & Blake, Adam & Thomas, Rhodri, 2013. "Modelling the economic impact of sports events: The case of the Beijing Olympics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 235-244.
    7. MASSIANI, Jérôme, 2022. "Computable General Equilibrium assessment of mega-events: Issues and possible solutions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 920-942.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2013. "Does tourism predict macroeconomic performance in Pacific Island countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 780-786.
    9. Leyi Zheng & Junfeng Liu & Qiong Yang & Yuqing Wang & Ying Liu & Xiurong Hu & Jianying Hu & Yi Wan & Xuejun Wang & Jianmin Ma & Xilong Wang & Shu Tao, 2023. "The Impacts of China’s Resident Tourism Subsidy Policy on the Economy and Air Pollution Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Santamaria, Daniel, 2016. "Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 80-96.
    11. Massiani, Jérôme, 2018. "Assessing the economic impact of mega events using Computable General Equilibrium models: Promises and compromises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-9.
    12. Haiyan Huang & Luke Lunhua Mao & Suk-Kyu Kim & James J. Zhang, 2014. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Three Major Sport Events in China: The Perspective of aTtendees," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 1277-1296, December.
    13. Pratt, Stephen, 2015. "The economic impact of tourism in SIDS," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 148-160.
    14. Chi-Wei Su & Xian-Li Meng & Ran Tao & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Chinese consumer confidence: A catalyst for the outbound tourism expenditure?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 696-717, May.

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