IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/evarev/v36y2012i6p449-474.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey Grogger

Abstract

Background: Social experiments frequently exploit data from administrative records. However, most administrative data systems are designed to track earnings or benefit payments among residents within a single state. When an experimental participant moves across state lines, his entries in the data system of his state of origin consist entirely of zeros. Such attrition may bias the estimated effect of the experiment. Objective: To estimate the attrition arising from interstate mobility and provide bounds on the effect of the experiment. Method: Attrition is estimated from runs of zeros at the end of the sample period. Bounds are constructed from these estimates. These estimates can be refined by imposing a stationarity assumption. Results: The width of the estimated bounds depends importantly on the nature of the data being analyzed. Negatively correlated outcomes provide tighter bounds than positively correlated outcomes. Conclusion: Attrition can introduce considerable ambiguity into the estimated effects of experimental programs. To reduce ambiguity, one should collect as much data as possible. Even data on outcomes of no direct interest to the objectives of the experiment may be valuable for reducing the ambiguity that arises due to attrition.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Grogger, 2012. "Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments," Evaluation Review, , vol. 36(6), pages 449-474, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:36:y:2012:i:6:p:449-474
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X13482125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0193841X13482125
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0193841X13482125?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "What Mean Impacts Miss: Distributional Effects of Welfare Reform Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 988-1012, September.
    2. Greenberg, David & Moffitt, Robert & Friedmann, John, 1981. "Underreporting and Experimental Effects on Work Effort: Evidence from the Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 581-589, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Collinson & John Eric Humphries & Nicholas Mader & Davin Reed & Daniel Tannenbaum & Winnie van Dijk, 2024. "Eviction and Poverty in American Cities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(1), pages 57-120.
    2. Veronica Minaya & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2018. "Labor Market Outcomes and Postsecondary Accountability: Are Imperfect Metrics Better Than None?," NBER Chapters, in: Productivity in Higher Education, pages 67-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Veronica Minaya & Judith Scott-Clayton, 2016. "Labor Market Outcomes and Postsecondary Accountability: Are Imperfect Metrics Better than None?," NBER Working Papers 22880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna & Xiaojun Song & Qi Xu, 2022. "Covariate distribution balance via propensity scores," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 1093-1120, September.
    2. Maier, Michael, 2011. "Tests for distributional treatment effects under unconfoundedness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 49-51, January.
    3. Firpo, Sergio & Galvao, Antonio F. & Kobus, Martyna & Parker, Thomas & Rosa-Dias, Pedro, 2020. "Loss Aversion and the Welfare Ranking of Policy Interventions," IZA Discussion Papers 13176, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Sloczynski, Tymon, 2018. "A General Weighted Average Representation of the Ordinary and Two-Stage Least Squares Estimands," IZA Discussion Papers 11866, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Abdullah Kumas & Daniel L. Millimet, 2018. "Reassessing the effects of bilateral tax treaties on US FDI activity," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 451-470, July.
    6. Balestra, Simone & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2017. "Heterogeneous returns to education over the wage distribution: Who profits the most?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 89-105.
    7. Shunyuan Zhang & Nitin Mehta & Param Vir Singh & Kannan Srinivasan, 2021. "Frontiers: Can an Artificial Intelligence Algorithm Mitigate Racial Economic Inequality? An Analysis in the Context of Airbnb," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(5), pages 813-820, September.
    8. Carlos Lamarche, 2013. "Industry-wide work rules and productivity: evidence from Argentine union contract data," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Zaresani, Arezou & Olivo-Villabrille, Miguel, 2022. "Return-to-work policies’ clawback regime and labor supply in disability insurance programs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Dipanwita Sarkar & Michael Kidd, 2016. "The impact of endogenous occupational attainment on native-migrant wage distributions," QuBE Working Papers 042, QUT Business School.
    11. Altmann, Steffen & Falk, Armin & Jäger, Simon & Zimmermann, Florian, 2018. "Learning about job search: A field experiment with job seekers in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 33-49.
    12. G�nther Fink & Margaret McConnell & Sebastian Vollmer, 2014. "Testing for heterogeneous treatment effects in experimental data: false discovery risks and correction procedures," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 44-57, January.
    13. Kock, Anders Bredahl & Preinerstorfer, David & Veliyev, Bezirgen, 2023. "Treatment recommendation with distributional targets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 624-646.
    14. Per Fredriksson & Daniel Millimet, 2007. "Legislative Organization and Pollution Taxation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 217-242, April.
    15. Cummins, Joseph R., 2017. "Heterogeneous treatment effects in the low track: Revisiting the Kenyan primary school experiment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 40-51.
    16. Neng-Chieh Chang, 2020. "The Mode Treatment Effect," Papers 2007.11606, arXiv.org.
    17. Tal Gross & Jeanne Lafortune & Corinne Low, 2014. "What Happens the Morning After? The Costs and Benefits of Expanding Access to Emergency Contraception," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 70-93, January.
    18. Katherine Caves & Simone Balestra, 2018. "The impact of high school exit exams on graduation rates and achievement," The Journal of Educational Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 111(2), pages 186-200, March.
    19. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    20. Kaplan, David M., 2015. "Improved quantile inference via fixed-smoothing asymptotics and Edgeworth expansion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 20-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    income support; methodological development;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:36:y:2012:i:6:p:449-474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.