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Términos del intercambio y desequilibrios gemelos: evidencia para Argentina

Author

Listed:
  • Lanteri, Luis N.

    (UNR (Argentina).)

Abstract

Este trabajo investiga la validez de la hipótesis de los desequilibrios gemelos (fiscal y externo) en el caso de una economía pequeña, como Argentina. El trabajo analiza, a través de modelos de VEC (modelo de corrección de errores), las relaciones de largo plazo entre la cuenta corriente, el déficit fiscal (o excedente), la inversión y los términos de intercambio, para el período 1993-2012. Los resultados sugieren que incrementos en el déficit fiscal y en la inversión deterioran el saldo de la cuenta corriente. A su vez, el resultado fiscal anticipa (causalidad, en sentido de Granger) a la cuenta corriente y a la inversión, pero no a la inversa.

Suggested Citation

  • Lanteri, Luis N., 2015. "Términos del intercambio y desequilibrios gemelos: evidencia para Argentina," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 23, pages 9-26, Mayo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1924
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Desequilibrios gemelos; términos de intercambio; modelos de VEC; Cuentas Nacionales base 1993; Argentina.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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