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Egypt has presented important budget imbalances

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Author Info
Carlos Marinheiro () (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)

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Abstract

This paper tries to evaluate whether Egypt’s public deficit has had any impact on current account imbalances, examining the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis for Egypt. We conclude for the presence of a (weak) long-run relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Yet, we reject the twin-deficit hypothesis: we found evidence in favour of a reverse Granger-causality running from the external deficit to the budget deficit. Further, we conclude against the validity of full Ricardian equivalence in Egypt and present evidence in favour of a high degree of capital mobility.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its series GEMF Working Papers with number 2006-07.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Policy Modeling. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.12.001
Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2006-07

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Related research
Keywords: Twin deficits; current account deficit; Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; Egypt; Fiscal policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Eugene Kouassi & Mbodja Mougoué & Kern O. Kymn, 2004. "Causality tests of the relationship between the twin deficits," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 503-525, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Normandin, Michel, 1999. "Budget deficit persistence and the twin deficits hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 171-193, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "The Consequences and Management of Capital Inflows: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 7901, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  8. Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "Tax Policy and International Competitiveness," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 349-386 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Omran, Mohammed, 2002. "Testing for a Significant Change in the Egyptian Economy under the Economic Reform Programme Era," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  10. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Arvind Subramanian, 1997. "The Egyptian Stabilization Experience - An Analytical Retrospective," IMF Working Papers 97/105, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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