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Est-il rationnel d’avoir des anticipations rationnelles?

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  • Guesnerie, Roger

    (Delta, Paris)

Abstract

As an eductive process, the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) is itself rational if a) individual rationality is common knowledge, b) the model under consideration is 'favourable'. These points are illustrated within Muth's model. An equilibrium is Strongly Rational (SR) when the REH is completed by a) and b). A Cournot equilibrium is SR. A Keynesian equilibrium can be reinterpreted as a SR-equilibrium. The overlapping generation model can lead to a SR-equilibrium. Such considerations call for a coordination branch in Normative Economics. They suggest quite a new field in Institutional Economics. L’hypothèse d’anticipations rationnelles n’est elle-même rationnelle, en tant que processus mental de divination, que si elle est une stratégie dominante dans l’espace des stratégies. Cela suppose des hypothèses complémentaires : la rationalité individuelle doit être connaissance commune (collective) et le modèle de référence doit être « favorable ». On illustre ce point à l’aide du modèle de Muth. On appelle fortement rationnel un équilibre où l’hypothèse des anticipations rationnelles est elle-même rationnelle. Ceci véhicule une idée de stabilité dans la coordination des anticipations. L’équilibre de Cournot est fortement rationnel. La spéculation peut être stabilisante. L’équilibre keynésien peut se réinterpréter comme un équilibre fortement rationnel. Ces considérations s’étendent aux équilibres à horizon infini et à l’économie normative. Elles appellent un supplément d’analyse institutionnelle.

Suggested Citation

  • Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "Est-il rationnel d’avoir des anticipations rationnelles?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(4), pages 544-559, décembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:68:y:1992:i:4:p:544-559
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