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External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy

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Author Info
Abdelhak S. Senhadji (International Monetary Fund)
Abstract

This paper analyzes the borrowing behavior of a small open economy of a Less Developed Country (LDC) that relies heavily on imports for its capital formation and faces an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, in an environment where decision makers face uncertainty about the longevity of external shocks. First, a dynamic general equilibrium model is developed which replicates fairly well the business cycle properties of the LDC data. Second, it is shown that uncertainty concerning the longevity of shocks (a relevant type of uncertainty, especially for LDCs) generates forecast errors that are autocorrelated in a way that is similar to Bayesian learning in the "peso problem." This autocorrelated forecast errors can generate substantial debt accumulation. Third, it is shown that the assumption of an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, which is a more realistic assumption for LDCs than the usual perfectly elastic one, offers an alternative to the Uzawa-type utility function for the analysis of asset accumulation in the small open economy framework. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1094-2025(02)00015-7
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Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 207-239
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:207-239

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Related research
Keywords: Debt accumulation; Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model; External shocks; Incomplete information; Less Developed Economies;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

References listed on IDEAS
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  4. Murphy, Robert G., 1991. "Macroeconomic adjustment under alternative lending arrangements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 103-127. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Cardia, Emanuela, 1991. "The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 411-434, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Vines, David, 2006. "Terms of Trade Shocks in an Intertemporal Model: Should We Worry about the Dutch Disease or Excessive Borrowing?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olivier, CARDI, 2005. "The Zero-Root Property : Permanent vs Temporary Terms of Trade Shocks," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005030, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ester Faia & Alessia Campolmi, 2005. "Inflation Differentials and Different Labor Market Institutions in the EMU," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Carlos Esteban Posada Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2004. "Un choque del activo externo neto y el ciclo económico Colombiano 1994-2001," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003674, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Amir Kia, 2004. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors?," Carleton Economic Papers 04-15, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugmanÕs intuition on the J-curve," CORE Discussion Papers 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  7. Thomas A. Lubik, 2007. "Non-stationarity and instability in small open-economy models even when they are "closed"," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 393-412. [Downloadable!]
  8. Amir Kia, 2006. "Deficits, Debt Financing, Monetary Policy and Inflation in Developing Countries: Internal or External Factors? Evidence from Iran," Carleton Economic Papers 06-03, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alessia Campolmi & Ester Faia, 2006. "Cyclical inflation divergence and different labor market institutions in the EMU," Working Paper Series 619, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Wilman Gómez & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Un "Choque" del Activo Externo Neto y el Ciclo Económico Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 285, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ester Faia, 2005. "Financial Differences and Business Cycle Co-Movements in A Currency Area," Working Papers 97, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Fabio Kanczuk, 2004. "Real Interest Rates and Brazilian Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 436-455, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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