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Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa

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Author Info
M. Ayhan Kose
Raymond Riezman

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Abstract

This paper examines the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African countries. We construct a quantitative, stochastic, dynamic, multi-sector equilibrium model of a small open economy calibrated to represent a typical African economy. In our framework, external shocks consist of trade shocks, modeled as fluctuations in the prices of exported primary commodities, imported capital goods and intermediate inputs, and a financial shock, modeled as fluctuations in the world real interest rate. Our results indicate that while trade shocks account for roughly 45 percent of economic fluctuations in aggregate output, financial shocks play only a minor role. We also find that adverse trade shocks induce prolonged recessions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation (CSGR), University of Warwick in its series CSGR Working papers series with number 43/99.

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Date of creation: Oct 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wck:wckewp:43/99

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Keywords: Trade shocks; dynamic stochastic quantitative trade model; African economies.;

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  1. David S. Jacks, Kevin H. O'Rourke and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp284, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Thomas Lubik & Wing Teo, 2005. "Do World Shocks Drive Domestic Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Economics Working Paper Archive 522, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sandeep Kapur & Luis Catão, 2004. "Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox," IMF Working Papers 04/51, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Pierre van den Boogaerde, 2005. "Ten Years After the CFA Franc Devaluation: Progress Toward Regional Integration in the WAEMU," IMF Working Papers 05/145, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pablo A. Acosta & Emmanuel K.K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman, 2007. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Working Paper 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah & Prathibha V. Joshi, 2008. "Perceived Financial Risk and Divergence in the Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan African Countries," Working Papers 200804, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  7. M. Ayhan Kose & Bill Blankenau & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "World Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Open Economies: a Multiple Shock Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1232, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marco Aiolfi & Allan Timmermann & Luis Catão, 2006. "Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 06/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jansen, Marion & Lennon, Carolina & Piermartini, Roberta, 2009. "Exposure to External Country Specific Shocks and Income Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 7123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Pacheco Jim�Nez, J.F., 2001. "Business cycles in small open economies: the case of Costa Rica," Working Papers - General Series 330, Institute of Social Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. Thomas Lubik & Wing Leong Teo, 2005. "Do Terms of Trade Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some Evidence from Structural Estimation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 377, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Stéphane Pallage & Michel A. Robe & Catherine Bérubé, 2004. "On the Potential of Foreign Aid as Insurance," Cahiers de recherche 0404, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
  13. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2006. "Trade Regimes, Liberalization and Macroeconomic Instability in Africa," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0604, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  14. AndrŽ, NYEMBWE & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN, 2005. "North-South Asymmetric Relationships : Does the EMU Business Affect Small African Economies ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005032, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  15. Christopher Blattman & Jason Hwang & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938," NBER Working Papers 9940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kodama, Masahiro, 2006. "Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 52, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO). [Downloadable!]
  18. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Australian Economy since Federation," NBER Working Papers 14694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Chantal Dupasquier & Patrick N. Osakwe & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2005. "Choice of Monetary and Exchange Regimes in ECOWAS: An Optimum Currency Area Analysis," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0510, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  20. Michael Webb, 2005. "The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 271-280, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Francisco J. Sáez & Luis A. Puch, 2003. "Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0301, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. [Downloadable!]
  23. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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