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Social Security and Demographic Trends: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience

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Author Info
Isaac Ehrlich (SUNY Buffalo)
Jinyoung Kim (SUNY Buffalo)

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Abstract

The worldwide problem with pay-as-you-go, defined-benefits social security systems isn't just financial. Through a dynamic, overlapping-generations model where forming a family and bearing and educating children are choice variables, we show that social security taxes and benefits generate incentives to reduce both family formation and fertility, and that these effects cannot be fully neutralized by counteracting inter-temporal or intergenerational transfers within families. We implement the model using calibrated simulations as well as panel data from 57 countries over 32 years. We find that PAYG tax measures account for a non-trivial part of the downward trends in family formation and fertility worldwide, especially in OECD countries. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2006.09.002
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 55-77
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:05-22

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Related research
Keywords: Social security Family Human capital Marriage Divorce Fertility Saving Growth Public pension Pay-as-you-go

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
O1 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Juan A. Rojas, 2004. "On the Interaction between Education and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 932-957, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Becker, Gary S, 1993. "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 385-409, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michele Boldrin & Maria Cristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000506, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," Departmental Working Papers 2003-09, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Stacy Dickert-Conlin & Cristian Meghea, 2004. "The Effect Of Social Security On Divorce And Remarriage Behavior," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-09, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ehrlich, Isaac & Zhong, Jian-Guo, 1998. "Social Security and the Real Economy: An Inquiry into Some Neglected Issues," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 151-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael Baker & Emily Hanna & Jasmin Kantarevic, 2004. "The Married Widow: Marriage Penalties Matter!," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 634-664, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Boadway, Robin W & Wildasin, David E, 1989. "A Median Voter Model of Social Security," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 307-28, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Falch, Torberg & Fischer, Justina AV, 2008. "Does a generous welfare state crowd out student effort? Panel data evidence from international student tests," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 694, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gugushvili, Alexi, 2007. "Giving the ageing of the population how can countries afford pay-as-you-go social insurance pensions?," MPRA Paper 2869, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Has Social Security Influenced Family Formation and Fertility in OECD Countries? An Economic and Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 12869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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