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Indicadores tendenciales de inflación y su relevancia como variables indicativas de política monetaria

Author

Listed:
  • Armas, Adrián
  • Vallejos , Lucy
  • Vega, Marco

Abstract

El Banco Central de Reserva del Perú opera bajo un esquema de metas explícitas de inflación. Esto implica el compromiso de situar el nivel de inflación en un promedio cercano a 2 por ciento a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, la inflación total presenta alta volatilidad debido principalmente a que el componente de alimentos en la canasta del consumidor es relativamente alto en comparación a países más desarrollados, por lo que las variaciones de precios relativos de los alimentos afectan la inflación total de una manera más drástica. El propósito de este documento es caracterizar el proceso inflacionario reciente en varias dimensiones. Así, se descompone la dinámica de la inflación en márgenes intensivos y extensivos, se estudia además la relación entre la tasa de inflación y los momentos de corte transversal en las variaciones de precios, la volatilidad de la inflación, las expectativas inflacionarias, diversos indicadores de inflación, y por último se evalúa un grupo de medidas de inflación subyacente.

Suggested Citation

  • Armas, Adrián & Vallejos , Lucy & Vega, Marco, 2011. "Indicadores tendenciales de inflación y su relevancia como variables indicativas de política monetaria," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 27-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-20-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Robert Amano & Tiff Macklem, 1997. "Menu Costs, Relative Prices, and Inflation: Evidence for Canada," Staff Working Papers 97-14, Bank of Canada.
    4. Armas, Adrián & Grippa, Francisco & Quispe, Zenón & Valdivia, Luis, 2001. "De metas monetarias a metas de inflación en una economía con dolarización parcial: El caso peruano," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 7.
    5. Bakhshi, Hasan, 2002. "Inflation and relative price variability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 27-33, June.
    6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    7. Baqaee, David, 2010. "Using wavelets to measure core inflation: The case of New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 241-255, December.
    8. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2011. "Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru," Working Papers 2011-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Erick Lahura & Marco Vega, 2011. "Evaluation of Wavelet-based Core Inflation Measures: Evidence from Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2011-320, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    3. Alex Contreras & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Regalado, 2017. "Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Renzo Rossini & Marco Vega & Zenón Quispe & Fernando Perez, 2016. "Inflation expectations and dollarisation in Peru," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 275-289, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Winkelried, Diego, 2013. "Modelo de Proyección Trimestral del BCRP: Actualización y novedades," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-60.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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