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An unequal reaction of housing starts to house prices in different regions of Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Olszewski

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Business Administration)

  • Jacek Łaszek

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Business Administration)

  • Joanna Waszczuk

    (SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Business Administration)

Abstract

In this article, we examine the developer’s decisions regarding construction under process in relation to prices in the 16 voivodeship capital cities, i.e. the biggest real estate markets in Poland. Our aim is to determine whether developers react in a similar fashion in different voivodeship capital cities, or whether significant differences can be observed. The problem of housing availability is important for the mobility of workers and, therefore, is an important factor of sustainable regional development for Poland. We study the correlation of leads and lags of cycles in house prices in the primary and secondary market and wages with the cycles of new construction under way. We find that for the biggest markets there is a strong correlation between the lags of secondary housing market prices with construction under way. However, no clear pattern can be observed for the smaller markets, which calls for further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Olszewski & Jacek Łaszek & Joanna Waszczuk, 2023. "An unequal reaction of housing starts to house prices in different regions of Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(4), pages 437-458.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:54:y:2023:i:4:p:437-458
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing under construction; housing prices; regional housing market differences; cycles; cross-correlations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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