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A társadalombiztosítás privatizálása hogyan működik és miért fontos?
[Privatization of social security how it works and why it matters?]

Author

Listed:
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence

Abstract

A tanulmány az Auerbach Kotlikoff-féle dinamikus életciklusmodellt (röviden: AKmodellt) használja a társadalombiztosítás magánosításának makroökonómiai és hatékonysági hatásainak vizsgálatához. Egyszerű módszert javasol: a személyi biztosítási rendszert mint elemzési keretet a tb magánosításának megvitatására, beleértve az átmeneti szabályokat és az átlagos progresszivitás változását. Az AK-modell szimulációja szerint a tb privatizálása hosszú távon igen nagy mértékben növelheti a kibocsátást és az életszínvonalat. Ezek a nyereségek nagyrészt, de nem kizárólag az életben levő korosztályok rovására valósulnak meg. A privatizációból adódó tiszta hatékonyságjavulás lényeges lehet. Ez a születendő korosztályok jólétének olyan növelését jelenti, amely azután marad, hogy az életben levő korosztályokat teljesen kárpótolták a privatizációból fakadó veszteségeikért. A hatékonyságjavulás pontos mértéke függ a fennálló adószerkezettől, a jelenlegi tb adói [járulékai S. A.] és kifizetései közti kapcsolattól, valamint az átmenet idején történő kifizetések adófinanszírozási eszközeitől. A szemléltetetésül szolgáló személyi biztosítási rendszer megmutatja, hogy az Egyesült Államok tb-rendszerének nyugdíjalrendszerét többféleképp is lehet privatizálni (a korábbi tb-befizetések többféle jóváírása mellett). Az elemzés azonban azt is megmutatja, hogy a privatizálásból adódó nyereségekkel szemben csökken a progresszivitás és nő az élettartami kockázat.

Suggested Citation

  • Kotlikoff, Laurence, 1996. "A társadalombiztosítás privatizálása hogyan működik és miért fontos? [Privatization of social security how it works and why it matters?]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1045-1071.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:129
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Edward Sabelhaus & David N. Weil, 1994. "The annuitization of Americans' resources: a cohort analysis," Working Papers (Old Series) 9413, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
    4. Franco, D. & Gokhale, J. & Guiso, L. & Kotlikoff, L.J. & Sartor, N., 1991. "Generational Accounting - The Case of Italy," Papers 18, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    5. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Spivak, Avia, 1981. "The Family as an Incomplete Annuities Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 372-391, April.
    6. Arrau, Patricio, 1990. "Social security reform : the capital accumulation and intergenerational distribution effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 512, The World Bank.
    7. Boskin, Michael J. & Kotlikoff, Lawrence J. & Puffert, Douglas J. & Shoven, John B., 1986. "Social Security: A Financial Appraisal Across and Within Generations," CEPR Publications 244432, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark J. Warshawsky, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 135-154.
    9. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1985. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," NBER Working Papers 1682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Simonovits, András, 1998. "Az új magyar nyugdíjrendszer és problémái [The new Hungarian pension system and its problems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 689-708.
    2. Szabó, Miklós, 1998. "Együttélő nemzedékek, generációk közötti transzferek, játékelmélet [Coexisting generations, intergenerational transfers, game theory]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 379-394.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights
    • P35 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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