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Is There Chaos in the World Economy? A Nonparametric Test Using Consistent Standard Errors

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Author Info
Mototsugu Shintani (Vanderbilt University)
Oliver Linton (London School of Economics)

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Abstract

A positive Lyapunov exponent is one practical definition of chaos. We develop a formal test for chaos in a noisy system based on the consistent standard errors of the nonparametric Lyapunov exponent estimators. For international real output series, the hypothesis of the positive Lyapunov exponent is significantly rejected in many cases. One possible interpretation of this result is that the traditional exogenous models are better able to explain business cycle fluctuations than is the chaotic endogenous approach. However, our results are subject to a number of caveats. Copyright 2003 By The Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 44 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 331-357
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:44:y:2003:i:1:p:331-357

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  22. Linton, Oliver, 1995. "Second Order Approximation in the Partially Linear Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1079-1112, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Shintani, Mototsugu & Linton, Oliver, 2004. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 1-33, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Frank, Murray & Gencay, Ramazan & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "International chaos?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1569-1584, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elena Olmedo & Ricardo Gimeno & Lorenzo Escot & Ruth Mateos, 2007. "Convergencia y Estabilidad de los Tipos de Cambio Europeos: Una Aplicación de Exponentes de Lyapunov," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(129), pages 91-108. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oliver Linton & Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "Nonparametric Neutral Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2002/434, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Hommes, C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time Series: A Comment," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mototsugu Shintani, 2003. "A Nonparametric Measure of Convergence Toward Purchasing Power Parity," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000172, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Cars Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2006. "Testing for Nonlinear Structure and Chaos in Economic Time. A Comment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-030/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  7. Vitaliy Vandrovych, 2005. "Study of Nonlinearities in the Dynamics of Exchange Rates: Is There Any Evidence of Chaos?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 234, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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