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Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries

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Author Info
Giorgio Fagiolo (Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy)
Mauro Napoletano
Andrea Roventini

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Abstract

This work explores some distributional properties of aggregate output growth-rate time series. We show that, in the majority of OECD countries, output growth-rate distributions are well approximated by symmetric exponential power densities with tails much fatter than those of a Gaussian (but with finite moments of any order). Fat tails robustly emerge in output growth rates independently of: (i) the way we measure aggregate output; (ii) the family of densities employed in the estimation; (iii) the length of time lags used to compute growth rates. We also show that fat tails still characterize output growth-rate distributions even after one washes away outliers, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.1003
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.5/
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 639-669
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:5:p:639-669

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," LEM Papers Series 2008/03, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Matteo Barigozzi & Lucia Alessi & Marco Capasso & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2008. "The Distribution of Consumption-Expenditure Budget Shares. Evidence from Italian Households," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-09, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "The microfoundations of business cycles: an evolutionary, multi-agent model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 413-432, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2007. "The patterns of output growth of firms and countries: new evidence on scale invariances and scale specificities," LEM Papers Series 2007/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Schumpeter Meeting Keynes: A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2008/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  6. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "The Great Moderation Flattens Fat Tails: Disappearing Leptokurtosis," Working papers 2008-48, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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