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Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty

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Author Info
Goldberg, Linda S
Kolstad, Charles D

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Abstract

Variable real exchange rates influence the location of production facilities chosen by a multinational. With risk averse investors and fixed productive factors, parent companies should not be indifferent to production location, even with identical expected costs of production across countries. If a nonnegative correlation exists between export demand and exchange rate shocks, the multinational optimally locates some productive capacity abroad. The capacity share abroad increases as exchange rate volatility rises and becomes more correlated with export demand shocks. These results are confirmed using quarterly U.S. bilateral foreign direct investment flows with Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Copyright 1995 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 855-73
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:36:y:1995:i:4:p:855-73

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rates and External Exposure," NBER Working Papers 4378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-88, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert E. Lipsey, 1993. "Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Changes over Three Decades," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, pages 113-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  7. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1986. "The Multinational Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 805-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. de Meza, David & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1987. "Production Flexibility as a Motive for Multinationality," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 343-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Craine, Roger, 1989. "Risky business : The allocation of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 201-218, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1989. "Credibility, Debt and Unemployment: Ireland's Failed Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 2785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Working Papers 92/20, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Goldberg, Linda S. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," Working Papers 94-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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