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Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China

Author

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  • Yueqiang Zhao

    (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China)

  • Manying Bai

    (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China)

  • Yali Liu

    (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China)

  • Junzhang Hao

    (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China)

Abstract

In the context of the aging population, the debt risk and solvency situation of China’s pension plan are of major concern for government and individuals. The aim of this paper is to project public pension liabilities and evaluate the solvency sustainability of China’s pension reform during transition periods. By using cohort component and actuarial models, transition debt and solvency sustainability are projected under the existing policy scenario and several sets of hypothetical policy scenarios. We find that the transition liabilities will peak in 2035 and the pension plan will become unsustainable in 2048 under existing policies. In the proposed scenario, postponing retirement age helps to maintain pension plan sustainability until 2083, but this option can’t solve the financial distress in the long run. Further, the transition pension debt will double in the peak moment if the retirement age is postponed for five years, which would pose a risk to the liquidity of the fund. Moreover, an increase to invest return can only improve the baseline solvency in short term. Sustainable options should be designed as composite reform measures, including retirement and investment adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Yali Liu & Junzhang Hao, 2017. "Quantitative Analyses of Transition Pension Liabilities and Solvency Sustainability in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:2252-:d:121847
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Xiaohua Chen & Zaigui Yang, 2019. "Stochastically Assessing the Financial Sustainability of Individual Accounts in the Urban Enterprise Employees’ Pension Plan in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Min Le & Xinrong Xiao & Dragan Pamučar & Qianling Liang, 2021. "A Study on Fiscal Risk of China’s Employees Basic Pension System under Longevity Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Lorenzo Fratoni & Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Sustainability and Social Adequacy of the Italian NDC Pension System under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Woong Bee Choi & Dongyeol Lee & Woo Chang Kim, 2021. "Extending the Scope of ALM to Social Investment: Investing in Population Growth to Enhance Sustainability of the Korean National Pension Service," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Asier Garayeta & J. Iñaki De la Peña & Eduardo Trigo, 2022. "Towards a Global Solvency Model in the Insurance Market: A Qualitative Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Yueqiang Zhao & Manying Bai & Peng Feng & Mengyuan Zhu, 2018. "Stochastic Assessments of Urban Employees’ Pension Plan of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Zhen Hu & James Yang, 2021. "Does Delayed Retirement Crowd Out Workforce Welfare? Evidence in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, November.
    10. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Shuangyue Sun, 2019. "Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan: Does the Demographic Policy Reform Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.
    11. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Qi Yang, 2019. "Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, February.

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