IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/kgu/wpaper/140.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Aging, Fiscal Sustainability and PAYG Pension Reform

Author

Listed:
  • Takaaki Morimoto

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Yuta Nakabo

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Ken Tabata

    (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)

Abstract

This paper examines how pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension reform from a defined-benefit scheme to a defined-contribution scheme affects fiscal sustainability and economic growth in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth. We show that in economies in which the old-age dependency ratio is high and the size of pension benefits under a defined-benefit scheme is large, such a pension reform mitigates the negative effect of population aging on fiscal sustainability and economic growth. However, we also show that this type of pension reform entails an intergenerational conflict of interest between current and future generations. Population aging might exacerbate the extent of this conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Takaaki Morimoto & Yuta Nakabo & Ken Tabata, 2016. "Population Aging, Fiscal Sustainability and PAYG Pension Reform," Discussion Paper Series 140, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Feb 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:kgu:wpaper:140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://192.218.163.163/RePEc/pdf/kgdp140.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Kazumasa Oguro, 2014. "Challenges confronting Abenomics and Japanese public finance ?Fiscal consolidation must start by squarely facing reality?," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 301-318, August.
    3. Neil Rankin & Barbara Roffia, 2003. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 217-241, June.
    4. Ken Tabata, 2015. "Population Aging and Growth: the Effect of PAYG Pension Reform," Discussion Paper Series 125, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2015.
    5. Neil Rankin, 2014. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt In The Perpetual Youth Model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 217-230, July.
    6. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 955-961, July.
    7. Grossman, Gene M. & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1993. "Asset bubbles and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-19, February.
    8. ARTIGE, Lionel & CAVENAILE, Laurent & PESTIEAU, Pierre, 2014. "The macroeconomics of PAYG pension schemes in an aging society," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014033, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Yakita, Akira, 2008. "Sustainability of public debt, public capital formation, and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 897-914, April.
    10. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    11. Jie Zhang & Junsen Zhang, 2005. "The Effect of Life Expectancy on Fertility, Saving, Schooling and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(1), pages 45-66, March.
    12. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen & Lee, Ronald, 2003. "Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 83-101, February.
    13. Chalk, Nigel A., 2000. "The sustainability of bond-financed deficits: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 293-328, April.
    14. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
    15. Tetsuo Ono, 2003. "Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 363-387, May.
    16. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    17. Real Arai, 2011. "Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(4), pages 327-351, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takaaki Morimoto & Yuta Nakabo & Ken Tabata, 2018. "Population Aging, Labor Market Frictions, and PAYG Pension," Discussion Paper Series 172, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2018.
    2. Yasuoka, Masaya & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2015. "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," CIS Discussion paper series 649, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Takumi Motoyama, 2019. "Sustainability of public debt under physical and human capital accumulation in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 19-45, June.
    4. Ken Tabata, 2015. "Population Aging and Growth: the Effect of PAYG Pension Reform," Discussion Paper Series 125, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Jan 2015.
    5. Futagami, Koichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1998. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 53(3-4), pages 331-354.
      • Futagami, Koichi & 二神, 孝一 & フタガミ, コウイチ & Shibata, Akihisa & 柴田, 章久 & シバタ, アキヒサ, 2003. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth," Discussion Paper 133, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Minoru Watanabe & Yusuke Miyake & Masaya Yasuoka, 2015. "Public Investment Financed By Consumption Tax In An Aging Society," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(05), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Noritaka Maebayashi & Jumpei Tanaka, 2022. "Limited asset market participation and fiscal sustainability," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 1-31, September.
    8. Noritaka Maebayashi & Kunihiko Konishi, 2016. "Sustainability of the public debt and wealth inequality in a general equilibrium model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-33, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Kamiguchi, Akira & Tamai, Toshiki, 2023. "Public investment, national debt, and economic growth: The role of debt finance under dynamic inefficiency," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Massimo Antonini, 2005. "Public Capital, Fiscal Deficit and Growth," DEGIT Conference Papers c010_055, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    11. Akira Yakita, 2017. "Life Expectancy, Money, and Growth," Population Economics, in: Population Aging, Fertility and Social Security, chapter 0, pages 13-26, Springer.
    12. Amer TABAKOVIĆ, 2019. "Public Spending in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Technological Change - Financing Matters -," Departmental Working Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    13. Yasuoka, Masaya & Miyake, Atsushi, 2013. "Public debt, child allowances and pension benefits with endogenous fertility," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-25.
    14. Ken Tabata, 2015. "Population Aging and Growth: The Effect of Pay-as-You-Go Pension Reform," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 71(3), pages 385-406, September.
    15. Real Arai & Takuma Kunieda & Keigo Nishida, 2014. "Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?," KIER Working Papers 884, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Sefa Awaworyi & Siew Ling Yew, 2014. "Government Transfers and Growth: Is there Evidence of Genuine Effect?," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    17. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2012. "Simple Dynamics of Public Debt with Productive Public Goods," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 165, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    18. Kamiguchi, Akira & Tamai, Toshiki, 2019. "Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 110-122.
    19. Akira Kamiguchi & Toshiki Tamai, 2017. "Public Investment and Golden Rule of Public Finance in an Overlapping Generations Model," KIER Working Papers 971, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4341 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Dedry, Antoine & Onder, Harun & Pestieau, Pierre, 2017. "Aging, social security design, and capital accumulation," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 145-155.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population aging; PAYG pensions; Defined-benefit schemes; Definedcontribution schemes; Fiscal sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kgu:wpaper:140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Toshihiro Okada (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dekgujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.