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Changes in the structure and duration of U.S. unemployment, 1967-1998

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  • Robert G. Valletta

Abstract

The unemployment rate is determined by the incidence and duration of unemployment spells. In this paper, I examine the time-series properties of unemployment incidence by reason and the duration of a typical unemployment spell. In line with earlier research, I find strong countercyclicality in unemployment. However, I also uncover an upward trend in duration that is entirely attributable to rising incidence and duration of permanent job loss. These changes in the structure and duration of unemployment have various policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert G. Valletta, 1998. "Changes in the structure and duration of U.S. unemployment, 1967-1998," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1998:p:29-40:n:3
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan B. Krueger & Alexandre Mas & Xiaotong Niu, 2017. "The Evolution of Rotation Group Bias: Will the Real Unemployment Rate Please Stand Up?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 258-264, May.
    2. Patrick Francois & Joanne Roberts, 2003. "Contracting Productivity Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(1), pages 59-85.
    3. Mukoyama, Toshihiko & Sahin, Aysegl, 2009. "Why did the average duration of unemployment become so much longer?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 200-209, March.
    4. Pedro Portugal & José Ferreira Machado, 2006. "U.S. Unemployment Duration: Has Long Become Longer or Short Become Shorter?," Working Papers w200613, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Robert G. Valletta, 2002. "Recent trends in unemployment duration," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov22.

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