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Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting: Modeling the Exchange Rate in Reduced-Form New Keynesian Models

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Abstract

This paper introduces a strategy for modeling the exchange rate when the monetary authority targets inflation while also managing the exchange rate using interventions. It does so in the framework of a standard reduced-form New Keynesian model of monetary transmission used in many institutions for research, forecasting, and monetary policy analysis. We propose a microfounded modification to the UIP condition which allows for modeling of informal exchange rate bands. Our modeling strategy is useful for most hybrid IT regimes, including those with imperfect control over market interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaromír Beneš & Jaromír Hurník & David Vávra, 2008. "Exchange Rate Management and Inflation Targeting: Modeling the Exchange Rate in Reduced-Form New Keynesian Models," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(03-04), pages 166-194, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:3-4:p:166-194
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Carballo & José Ignacio González & Margarita Güenaga & José Mourelle & Gabriela Romaniello, 2015. "Un modelo semi estructural de proyecciones macroeconómicas para el Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2015012, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    2. Youssef OUKHALLOU & Abla MRABTI, 2017. "A Small Scale Macroeconomic Model for Morocco," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 159-177, June.
    3. Anton Grui & Artem Vdovychenko, 2019. "Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine," Working Papers 03/2019, National Bank of Ukraine.
    4. Josef Arlt & Martin Mandel, 2012. "Je možné předpovídat repo sazbu ČNB na základě zpět hledícího měnového pravidla? [Is it Possible to Predict the CNB Repo Rate on the Basis of the Backward-Looking Monetary Rule?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 484-504.
    5. Ms. Grace B Li & Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell & Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2016. "VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2016/090, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ion PARTACHI & Simion MIJA, 2013. "Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Using Econometric Models," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(4), pages 148-157, December.
    7. Ales Bulir & Jaromir Hurnik & Katerina Smidkova, 2013. "Inflation Reports and Models: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?," Working Papers 2013/03, Czech National Bank.
    8. Hove, Seedwell & Touna Mama, Albert & Tchana Tchana, Fulbert, 2015. "Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 53-71.
    9. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
    10. Solomiia Brychka & Denys Klynovskyi & Dmytro Krukovets & Artem Oharkov, 2019. "Meta-Analysis: Meta-Analysis: Effect of FX interventions on the exchange rate," Modern Economic Studies, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-44.
    11. Aymen Makni, 2019. "A Macro-Model to Monetary Transmission Analysis in Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 13-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Anton Grui, 2020. "Uncovered interest parity with foreign exchange interventions under exchange rate peg and inflation targeting: The case of Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 14-2020, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Ms. Luisa Charry & Pranav Gupta & Mr. Vimal V Thakoor, 2014. "Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda," IMF Working Papers 2014/159, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Gantumur, Munkhbayar, 2020. "Measuring the natural rate of interest in a commodity exporting economy: Evidence from Mongolia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 199-218.
    15. Соломія Бричка & Денис Клиновський & Дмитро Круковець & Артем Огарков, 2019. "Мета-аналіз: ефект fx-інтервенцій на валютний курс," Suchasni ekonomichni doslidzhennja, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-47.
    16. Juraj Antal & Frantisek Brazdik & Jan Bruha & Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan & Jiri Podpiera & Stanislav Polak & Yuliya Rychalovska, 2008. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Inflation Targeting and DSGE Models," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 6, number rb06/2 edited by Juraj Antal & Jan Babecky, January.
    17. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    18. Karel Musil & Mikhail Pranovich & Mr. Jan Vlcek, 2018. "Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus," IMF Working Papers 2018/254, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Hostland & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/256, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Tibor Hledik & Sultanija Bojceva-Terzijan & Biljana Jovanovic & Rilind Kabashi, 2016. "Overview of the Macedonian Policy Analysis Model (MAKPAM)," Working Papers 2016-04, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    21. Castillo, Carlos, 2014. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility smoothing: A two-target, two-instrument approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 330-345.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    IT regimes; New Keynesian model; exchange rate; UIP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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