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Managerial overconfidence, firm transparency, and stock price crash risk

Author

Listed:
  • Quanxi Liang
  • Leng Ling
  • Jingjing Tang
  • Haijian Zeng
  • Mingming Zhuang

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze whether and how managerial overconfidence affects stock price crash risk. Design/methodology/approach - Based on a large sample of Chinese non-state-owned firms from 2000 to 2012, this study employs methods including multiple linear regression model, Heckman two-stage treatment effect procedure, firm fixed effects model and event study to clarify the causality relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk. Findings - The authors find that firms with overconfident managers (chief executive officer or board chairs) are more likely to experience future stock price crashes than firms with non-overconfident managers. The effect of overconfidence on crash risk is more pronounced for firms with low transparency, suggesting that firm opacity facilitates overconfident managers’ bad news hoarding activities, which, in turn, increases stock price crash risk. The authors also show evidence that overconfident managers tend to disclose good news in a timely manner. Originality/value - The authors add to the growing literature on stock price crash risk. Specifically, the authors find that the cognitive bias of board chair plays an important role in the bad news hoarding activities, thereby increasing the likelihood of stock price crash. This study also contributes to the literature that addresses the effects of managerial overconfidence on corporate finance issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Quanxi Liang & Leng Ling & Jingjing Tang & Haijian Zeng & Mingming Zhuang, 2019. "Managerial overconfidence, firm transparency, and stock price crash risk," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 271-296, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:cfripp:cfri-01-2019-0007
    DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-01-2019-0007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jia, Fansheng & Li, Guangzhong & Lu, Xiaoyan & Xie, Sujuan, 2021. "CEO given names and corporate green investment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Tolossa Fufa Guluma, 2021. "The impact of corporate governance measures on firm performance: the influences of managerial overconfidence," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Huang, Yichu & Fan, Yaoyao, 2022. "Risk along the supply chain: Geographic proximity and corporate risk taking," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Yang, Chang & Chen, Xin & Chen, Xian, 2021. "Vertical interlock and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Dariusz Dudek & Marcin Lipowski & Ilona Bondos, 2021. "Changing Energy Supplier on the Market with a Strong Position of Incumbent Suppliers—Polish Example," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    6. Adnan Safi & Xianrong Yi & Salman Wahab & Yingying Chen & Hassan Hassan, 2021. "CEO overconfidence, firm-specific factors, and systemic risk: evidence from China," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 30-47, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Managerial overconfidence; Stock price crash risk; Firm transparency; M12; G14; G34;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M12 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Personnel Management; Executives; Executive Compensation
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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