IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/touman/v48y2015icp268-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing dependence between GDP and tourism's growth rates

Author

Listed:
  • Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V.
  • Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco
  • Santana-Gallego, María

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to link the economic behaviour and statistical properties of GDP and tourism receipts growth rates through modelling the dependence. To that end, two developed economies such as the United Kingdom (non-tourist oriented) and Spain (tourist-oriented), and an emerging economy such as Croatia (tourist-oriented) are considered as case studies. Therefore, a copula-based GARCH approach is employed to describe the dependence structure between GDP and tourism receipts growth rates. In this respect, any causality and cointegration between tourism and GDP could justify public policies that promote a more efficient public resource allocation in the tourism industry. Additionally, evidence of dependence between growth rates can justify the extent and direction of these policies. Results indicate that there is a significant, asymmetric and positive dependence between tourism and GDP growth rates for the three countries studied, though only for Croatia is it time-varying over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V. & Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco & Santana-Gallego, María, 2015. "Testing dependence between GDP and tourism's growth rates," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 268-282.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:268-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.11.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517714002362
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.11.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramesh Durbarry, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 389-401, December.
    2. Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Dependence structure among international stock markets: a GARCH--copula analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(23), pages 1805-1817, December.
    3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    5. Carluccio Bianchi & Alessandro Carta & Dean Fantazzini & Maria Elena De Giuli & Mario Maggi, 2010. "A copula-VAR-X approach for industrial production modelling and forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3267-3277.
    6. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    7. Umberto Cherubini & Elisa Luciano, 2001. "Value-at-risk Trade-off and Capital Allocation with Copulas," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(2), pages 235-256, July.
    8. María Santana‐Gallego & Francisco J. Ledesma‐Rodríguez & Jorge V. Pérez‐Rodríguez & Isabel Cortés‐Jiménez, 2010. "Does a Common Currency Promote Countries’ Growth via Trade and Tourism?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1811-1835, December.
    9. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173, March.
    10. Murray D. Smith, 2008. "Stochastic frontier models with dependent error components," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 172-192, March.
    11. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Alcock, Jamie & Faff, Robert & Brailsford, Timothy, 2013. "Canonical vine copulas in the context of modern portfolio management: Are they worth it?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3085-3099.
    12. Bartolomé, Ana & McAleer, Michael & Ramos, Vicente & Rey-Maquieira, Javier, 2009. "A risk map of international tourist regions in Spain," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2741-2758.
    13. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    14. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    15. Edward Frees & Ping Wang, 2005. "Credibility Using Copulas," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 31-48.
    16. Joe, Harry, 2005. "Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 401-419, June.
    17. Edward Frees & Emiliano Valdez, 1998. "Understanding Relationships Using Copulas," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25.
    18. Hans Manner & Olga Reznikova, 2012. "A Survey on Time-Varying Copulas: Specification, Simulations, and Application," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 654-687, November.
    19. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012. "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 270-282.
    20. Dias, Alexandra & Embrechts, Paul, 2010. "Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1687-1705, December.
    21. Lokman Gunduz & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 499-504.
    22. Chih‐Chiang Hsu & Chih‐Ping Tseng & Yaw‐Huei Wang, 2008. "Dynamic hedging with futures: A copula‐based GARCH model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1095-1116, November.
    23. Juan Luis Eugenio-Martín & Noelia Martín Morales & Riccardo Scarpa, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers 2004.26, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    24. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    25. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-362, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria, 2017. "“What really matters is the economic performance: Positioning tourist destinations by means of perceptual maps," IREA Working Papers 201713, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jun 2017.
    2. Becken, Susanne & Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2016. "Does tourism lead to peace?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 63-79.
    3. Jesús Iglesias & Manuel E Gegundez & Antonio A Golpe & José Carlos Vides, 2018. "How do foreign income shocks affect the magnitude of Spanish tourism?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 839-871, November.
    4. Jorge M. Andraz & Nélia M. Norte & Hugo S. Gonçalves, 2016. "Do tourism spillovers matter in regional economic analysis? An application to Portugal," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 939-963, October.
    5. A.C. Pinate & A. Faggian & M.G. Brandano, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector in Italy: a regional spatial perspective," Working Paper CRENoS 202309, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Martin Falk & Xiang Lin, 2018. "Income elasticity of overnight stays over seven decades," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1015-1028, December.
    7. Panagiotou, Dimitrios & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2017. "Vertical price relationships between different cuts and quality grades in the U.S. beef marketing channel: A wholesale-retail analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 53-63.
    8. Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Another look at the implied and realised volatility relation: a copula-based approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 38-64, March.
    9. Liang Zhu & Christine Lim & Wenjun Xie & Yuan Wu, 2017. "Analysis of tourism demand serial dependence structure for forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1419-1436, November.
    10. Jianxu Liu & Vicente Ramos & Bing Yang & Mengjiao Wang & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2024. "Analysing the dynamic co-movement between tourism and expected economic growth considering extreme events," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 3-26, February.
    11. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2018. "Revisiting the Balassa–Samuelson effect: International tourism and cultural proximity," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 915-944, December.
    12. Xu Huang & Emmanuel Silva & Hossein Hassani, 2018. "Causality between Oil Prices and Tourist Arrivals," Stats, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, October.
    13. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 341-357, August.
    14. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-232.
    15. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Regional tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: Gaussian process regression vs. neural network models in a multiple-input multiple-output setting"," IREA Working Papers 201701, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    16. Martin Falk & Xiang Lin, 2018. "The declining dependence of ski lift operators on natural snow conditions," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 662-676, September.
    17. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & Heiko Rachinger & María Santana-Gallego, 2022. "Does tourism promote economic growth? A fractionally integrated heterogeneous panel data analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1355-1376, August.
    18. Hasrina Mustafa & Fahri Ahmed & Waffa Wahida Zainol & Azlizan Mat Enh, 2021. "Forecasting the Impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on International Tourist Arrivals to Langkawi, Malaysia: A PostCOVID-19 Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & María Santana-Gallego, 2020. "Modelling tourism receipts and associated risks, using long-range dependence models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 70-96, February.
    20. Dogan, Ergun & Zhang, Xibin, 2023. "A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Khalid Zaman & Abdullah Mohammed Aldakhil & Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi Abro, 2017. "War economy and pleasure: assessing the effects of military expenditure on tourism growth," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1733-1754, July.
    22. Ki-Hong Choi & Insin Kim, 2021. "Co-Movement between Tourist Arrivals of Inbound Tourism Markets in South Korea: Applying the Dynamic Copula Method Using Secondary Time Series Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-13, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2020. "Another look at the implied and realised volatility relation: a copula-based approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 38-64, March.
    2. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    3. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Acar, Elif F. & Czado, Claudia & Lysy, Martin, 2019. "Flexible dynamic vine copula models for multivariate time series data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 181-197.
    6. Hofert, Marius & Prasad, Avinash & Zhu, Mu, 2022. "Multivariate time-series modeling with generative neural networks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 147-164.
    7. Tong, Bin & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Modeling asymmetric and dynamic dependence of overnight and daytime returns: An empirical evidence from China Banking Sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 366-382.
    8. Arthur Charpentier, 2015. "Prévision avec des copules en finance," Working Papers hal-01151233, HAL.
    9. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang, 2015. "Hedging with Futures: Does Anything Beat the Naïve Hedging Strategy?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2870-2889, December.
    10. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    11. Prince Osei Mensah & Anokye M. Adam, 2020. "Copula-Based Assessment of Co-Movement and Tail Dependence Structure Among Major Trading Foreign Currencies in Ghana," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-20, June.
    12. Smith, Michael Stanley, 2023. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 81-104.
    13. Samitas, Aristeidis & Tsakalos, Ioannis, 2013. "How can a small country affect the European economy? The Greek contagion phenomenon," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 18-32.
    14. Zhou, Xinmiao & Qian, Huanhuan & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge. V. & González López-Valcárcel, Beatriz, 2020. "Risk dependence and cointegration between pharmaceutical stock markets: The case of China and the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Michael Stanley Smith, 2021. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Papers 2109.04718, arXiv.org.
    16. So, Mike K.P. & Yeung, Cherry Y.T., 2014. "Vine-copula GARCH model with dynamic conditional dependence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 655-671.
    17. Warshaw, Evan, 2019. "Extreme dependence and risk spillovers across north american equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 237-251.
    18. Otranto, Edoardo, 2010. "Identifying financial time series with similar dynamic conditional correlation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15, January.
    19. Salah Eddine Sari Hassoun & Khayereddine Salim Adda & Asma Hadjira Sebbane, 2021. "Examining the connection among national tourism expenditure and economic growth in Algeria," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    20. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:48:y:2015:i:c:p:268-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/tourism-management .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.