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What does anticipated monetary policy do?

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  • D’Amico, Stefania
  • King, Thomas B.

Abstract

Applying sign restrictions to measures of expectations in a VAR, we quantify the economic effects of imperfectly and perfectly anticipated monetary policy innovations—the type of shocks induced by partially and fully credible forward guidance (FG). We find that fully credible FG one-year ahead has large near-term effects on prices and real activity, but, consistent with the forward guidance puzzle, these effects do not grow much larger as the FG horizon extends into the future. We also estimate that anticipated policy innovations are very noisy. At the one-year horizon, over 70 percent of the monetary-policy signal consists of noise, and the prevalence of noise increases at longer horizons. FG subject to this level of noise would be only partially credible and have significantly smaller macroeconomic effects.

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  • D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:138:y:2023:i:c:p:123-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    2. Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "Forward Guidance And The State Of The Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1593-1624, October.
    3. Oliver de Groot & Falk Mazelis & Roberto Motto & Annukka Ristiniemi, "undated". "A Toolkit for Computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)," Working Papers 202112, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2023. "The forward guidance trap," IMFS Working Paper Series 190, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2023. "What does anticipated monetary policy do?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 123-139.
    6. Ferreira, Leonardo N., 2022. "Forward guidance matters: Disentangling monetary policy shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Dominic Anene & Stefania D'Amico, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Maximilian Böck & Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2021. "International Effects of Euro Area Forward Guidance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1066-1110, October.
    9. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2018. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 168-186.
    10. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    11. Athanasios Orphanides, 2023. "The Forward Guidance Trap," IMES Discussion Paper Series 23-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    12. Ryu, Hang K. & Slottje, Daniel J., 2017. "Maximum entropy estimation of income distributions from Basmann’s weighted geometric mean measure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 221-231.
    13. Ajisafe, Rufus A. & Adesina, Kehinde E. & Okunade, Solomon O., 2022. "Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Monetary Policy on Output in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Forward guidance; Sign restrictions; Survey-augmented VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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