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Did mergers help Japanese mega-banks avoid failure? Analysis of the distance to default of banks

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  • Harada, Kimie
  • Ito, Takatoshi

Abstract

This paper applied the distance to default (DD) measure to five mergers among large Japanese banks during the crisis period. The DD helps us analyze whether mergers that took place in the late 1990s and 2000s made the merged banks financially more robust, as intended. Our findings include: (1) A merged bank fundamentally inherits financial soundness of premerged banks, without incremental value from the merger; and (2) A negative DD was observed following the merger. The findings of this case study are consistent with the view that large Japanese banks' mergers either failed to implement intended scale economies or were motivated by a belief in the too-big-to-fail policy.

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  • Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi, 2011. "Did mergers help Japanese mega-banks avoid failure? Analysis of the distance to default of banks," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:25:y:2011:i:1:p:1-22
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    5. George Halkos & Roman Matousek & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2016. "Pre-evaluating technical efficiency gains from possible mergers and acquisitions: evidence from Japanese regional banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 47-77, January.
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    7. Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito & Shuhei Takahashi, 2010. "Is the Distance to Default a Good Measure in Predicting Bank Failures? Case Studies," NBER Working Papers 16182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    9. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2016. "An econometric evaluation of bank recapitalization programs with bank- and loan-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-24.
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    11. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-184.
    12. Besstremyannaya, Galina, 2017. "Heterogeneous effect of the global financial crisis and the Great East Japan Earthquake on costs of Japanese banks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 66-89.
    13. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    14. Ion Lapteacru, 2016. "Income and funding structures, banking regulation and bank risk-taking: The role of ownership in Central and Eastern European banks," Working Papers hal-01301825, HAL.
    15. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    16. Martín Saldías, 2012. "Systemic risk analysis and option-based theory and information," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Uesugi, Iichiro & Hiraga, Kazuki & Manabe, Masashi & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2022. "Measuring concentration in the Japanese loan and deposit markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    18. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2013. "Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 70-82.
    19. Heather Montgomery & Yuki Takahashi, 2018. "Effect of Bank Mergers on Client Firms: Evidence from the Credit Supply Channel," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 438-449, December.
    20. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Matousek, Roman & Vu, Anh Nguyet, 2016. "What is the impact of bankrupt and restructured loans on Japanese bank efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 187-202.
    21. George E. Halkos & Roman Matousek & Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2016. "Pre-evaluating technical efficiency gains from possible mergers and acquisitions: evidence from Japanese regional banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 47-77, January.
    22. Dibooglu, Sel & Cevik, Emrah I. & Tamimi, Hussein A. Hassan Al, 2022. "Credit default risk in Islamic and conventional banks: Evidence from a GARCH option pricing model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 396-411.
    23. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2016. "Penguatan Perbankan Syari’ah melalui Merger atau Konsolidasi [Strengthening Sharia Banking through Merger or Consolidation]," MPRA Paper 97964, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Manish K. Singh & Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2014. "Forward looking banking stress in EMU countries," Working Papers 14-10, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    25. Tonmoy Choudhury & Simone Scagnelli & Jaime Yong & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2021. "Non-Traditional Systemic Risk Contagion within the Chinese Banking Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Distance to default Bank merger Financial holding company;

    JEL classification:

    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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