IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_1647.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices – Estonia Focus

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Fu Chen
  • Michael Funke
  • Kadri Männasoo

Abstract

Banking reform has proved to be one of the most problematic elements of economic transition in central and Eastern Europe. Therefore the paper considers the development of the Estonian banking sector and derives individual banks´ fragility scores during transition. To this end we use option-based tools and equity prices to estimate distance-to-default measures of banks´ distress probabilities. Overall, the results suggest that market indicators are moderately useful for anticipating future financial distress and rating changes in transition economies. The implication for an effective supervisory framework is to use a plurality of risk scores when assessing bank vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo, 2006. "Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices – Estonia Focus," CESifo Working Paper Series 1647, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1647
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1647.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
    2. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    3. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192, pages 68-83, April.
    6. Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
    7. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    8. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    9. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    10. Alain Bensoussan & Michel Crouhy & Dan Galai, 1994. "Stochastic equity volatility related to the leverage effect," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 63-85.
    11. Tang, Helena & Zoli, Edda & Klytchnikova, Irina, 2000. "Banking crises in transition economies : fiscal costs and related issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2484, The World Bank.
    12. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9.
    13. Arnaud Jobert & Ms. Janet Kong & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/033, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    15. A. Bensoussan & M. Crouhy & D. Galai, 1995. "Stochastic equity volatility related to the leverage effect II: valuation of European equity options and warrants," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 43-60.
    16. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    17. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boris Blagov, 2018. "Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1017-1060, May.
    2. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2010. "The Transitional Dynamics Of Fiscal Policy In Small Open Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, February.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/179 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kadri Männasoo & Heili Hein, 2017. "Are R&D companies credit-constrained? Credit frictions during and post-crisis," TUT Economic Research Series 29, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.
    6. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Kadri Männasoo & Heili Hein, 2017. "Capital investments and financing structure: Are R&D companies different?," TUT Economic Research Series 26, Department of Finance and Economics, Tallinn University of Technology.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2011. "The term structure of banking crisis risk in the United States: A market data based compound option approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 876-885, April.
    2. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "Deriving the term structure of banking crisis risk with a compound option approach: The case of Kazakhstan," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Reint Gropp & Marco Lo Duca & Jukka Vesala, 2009. "Cross-Border Bank Contagion in Europe," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(1), pages 97-139, March.
    4. Fricke, Daniel, 2010. "Contagion between European and US banks: Evidence from equity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1667, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Elahi, M.A., 2011. "Essays on financial fragility," Other publications TiSEM 882f55bb-10dc-4e49-95ef-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007. "Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December.
    7. Maltritz, Dominik, 2010. "A compound option approach to model the interrelation between banking crises and country defaults: The case of Hungary 2008," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3025-3036, December.
    8. Maltritz, Dominik & Eichler, Stefan, 2010. "Currency crisis prediction using ADR market data: An options-based approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 858-884, October.
    9. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
    10. Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Mr. Marcos R Souto & Christian Capuano, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 2009/162, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Eichler, Stefan & Sobański, Karol, 2016. "National politics and bank default risk in the eurozone," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 247-256.
    12. Xiaoqing Maggie Fu & Yongjia Rebecca Lin & Philip Molyneux, 2015. "Bank Competition and Financial Stability in Asia Pacific," Palgrave Macmillan Studies in Banking and Financial Institutions, in: Bank Competition, Efficiency and Liquidity Creation in Asia Pacific, chapter 3, pages 49-71, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Mbarek Lassaâd & Mezzez Hmaied Dorra, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, August.
    14. Arnaud Jobert & Ms. Janet Kong & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/033, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Martin Cihak & Sonia Munoz & Ryan Scuzzarella, 2012. "The Bright and the Dark Side of Cross-Border Banking Linkages," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(3), pages 200-225, July.
    16. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
    17. Wong, Jim & Wong, Tak-Chuen & Leung, Phyllis, 2010. "Predicting banking distress in the EMEAP economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 169-179, September.
    18. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    19. Lassaâd Mbarek & Dorra Mezzez Hmaied, 2012. "Stock Market Assessment of Bank Risk: Evidence from the Maghreb Region," Working Papers 679, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    20. Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 807-818, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking; financial stability; bank fragility; options; Estonia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1647. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.