IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v146y2022i3p859-883.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Liquidity in the global currency market

Author

Listed:
  • Ranaldo, Angelo
  • de Magistris, Paolo Santucci

Abstract

We study the liquidity of the global currency market by analyzing the price impact of trading volume. We analyze a decade of CLS intraday data representative of global foreign exchange (FX) trading by developing a refinement of the popular Amihud (2002) illiquidity measure that we call realized Amihud, which is the ratio between realized volatility and trading volume. Inversely related to market depth, price impact increases with transaction costs, money market stress, uncertainty, and risk aversion. Furthermore, we analyze whether and how liquidity begets price efficiency by looking at violations of the “triangular” no-arbitrage condition. We find that dollar-based currencies offer a lower trading impact supporting price efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranaldo, Angelo & de Magistris, Paolo Santucci, 2022. "Liquidity in the global currency market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 859-883.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:146:y:2022:i:3:p:859-883
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.09.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X22001891
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.09.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Hau & Massimo Massa & Joel Peress, 2010. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1681-1717, April.
    2. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Likelihood Inference for a Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2667-2732, November.
    3. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    5. Bjonnes, Geir Hoidal & Rime, Dagfinn, 2005. "Dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 571-605, March.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    7. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 457-477.
    8. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1994. "Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 317-348, June.
    9. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 601-634, April.
    10. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508.
    11. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    12. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2022. "Constrained Dealers and Market Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Koijen, Ralph & Gabaix, Xavier, 2020. "Granular Instrumental Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 15531, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    15. Grossman, Sanford J & Miller, Merton H, 1988. " Liquidity and Market Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 617-637, July.
    16. Fischer, Andreas M. & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2011. "Does FOMC news increase global FX trading?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2965-2973, November.
    17. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
    18. Ito, Takatoshi & Hashimoto, Yuko, 2006. "Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 637-664, December.
    19. Giovanni Cespa & Antonio Gargano & Steven J Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2022. "Foreign Exchange Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2386-2427.
    20. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
    21. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    22. Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2021. "Foreign Safe Asset Demand and the Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1049-1089, June.
    23. Alain P. Chaboud & Sergey V. Chernenko & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Trading activity and exchange rates in high-frequency EBS data," International Finance Discussion Papers 903, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Francis Breedon & Angelo Ranaldo, 2013. "Intraday Patterns in FX Returns and Order Flow," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 953-965, August.
    25. Foucault, Thierry & Pagano, Marco & Roell, Ailsa, 2013. "Market Liquidity: Theory, Evidence, and Policy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199936243.
    26. Markus Hertrich & Heinz Zimmermann, 2017. "On the Credibility of the Euro/Swiss Franc Floor: A Financial Market Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 567-578, March.
    27. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    28. Darolles, Serge & Le Fol, Gaëlle & Mero, Gulten, 2017. "Mixture of distribution hypothesis: Analyzing daily liquidity frictions and information flows," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 367-383.
    29. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June.
    30. Hartmann, Philipp, 1999. "Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from daily dollar-yen spot data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 801-824, May.
    31. Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2008. "Order flows, news, and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 994-1012, October.
    32. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    33. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    34. Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Shachar, Or, 2017. "Dealer balance sheets and bond liquidity provision," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 92-109.
    35. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    36. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
    37. Loriano Mancini & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2013. "Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market: Measurement, Commonality, and Risk Premiums," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1805-1841, October.
    38. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2016. "Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1345-1404, July.
    39. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2014. "Estimating The Persistence And The Autocorrelation Function Of A Time Series That Is Measured With Error," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 60-93, February.
    40. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    41. Berger, David W. & Chaboud, Alain P. & Chernenko, Sergey V. & Howorka, Edward & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Order flow and exchange rate dynamics in electronic brokerage system data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 93-109, May.
    42. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
    43. Yakov Amihud & Joonki Noh & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Illiquidity and Stock Returns II: Cross-section and Time-series Effects [A simple estimation of bid-ask spreads from daily close, high and low prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 2101-2123.
    44. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo & Söderlind, Paul, 2011. "The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(4), pages 1107-1125, August.
    45. Breedon, Francis & Chen, Louisa & Ranaldo, Angelo & Vause, Nicholas, 2023. "Judgment day: Algorithmic trading around the Swiss franc cap removal," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    46. Meddahi, N., 2001. "A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilies," Cahiers de recherche 2001-26, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    47. Urban J. Jermann, 2017. "Financial Markets' Views about the Euro–Swiss Franc Floor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 553-565, March.
    48. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2016. "Market Microstructure Invariance: Empirical Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1345-1404, July.
    49. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    50. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2012. "A Simple Way to Estimate Bid‐Ask Spreads from Daily High and Low Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 719-760, April.
    51. Mirkov, Nikola & Pozdeev, Igor & Soderlind, Paul, 2016. "Toward Removal of the Swiss Franc Cap: Market Expectations and Verbal Interventions," Working Papers on Finance 1614, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    52. Xiaoxia Lou & Tao Shu, 2017. "Price Impact or Trading Volume: Why Is the Amihud (2002) Measure Priced?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4481-4520.
    53. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko & Or Shachar, 2017. "Dealer Balance Sheets and Corporate Bond Liquidity Provision," Liberty Street Economics 20170524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    54. Hasbrouck, Joel & Levich, Richard M., 2021. "Network structure and pricing in the FX market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 705-729.
    55. Tarun Chordia & Sahn-Wook Huh & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2009. "Theory-Based Illiquidity and Asset Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3629-3668, September.
    56. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    57. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Understanding Order Flow," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 13, pages 507-546, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    58. Joel Hasbrouck, 2009. "Trading Costs and Returns for U.S. Equities: Estimating Effective Costs from Daily Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1445-1477, June.
    59. Johansen, SØren, 2008. "A Representation Theory For A Class Of Vector Autoregressive Models For Fractional Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 651-676, June.
    60. Darolles, Serge & Fol, Gaëlle Le & Mero, Gulten, 2015. "Measuring the liquidity part of volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 92-105.
    61. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    62. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    63. Roll, Richard, 1984. "A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1127-1139, September.
    64. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    65. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    66. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 457-477.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leonie Bräuer & Harald Hau, 2022. "Can Time-Varying Currency Risk Hedging Explain Exchange Rates?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-77, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Bazán, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "CIP deviations: The role of U.S. banks’ liquidity and regulations," MPRA Paper 118600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Liu, Guangqiang & Liu, Boyang, 2023. "How digital technology improves the high-quality development of enterprises and capital markets: A liquidity perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angelo Ranaldo & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2018. "Trading Volume, Illiquidity and Commonalities in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1823, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2019.
    2. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    5. Huang, Wenqian & Ranaldo, Angelo & Schrimpf, Andreas & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2022. "Constrained Dealers and Market Efficiency," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264054, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
    7. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    8. Abankwa, Samuel & Blenman, Lloyd P., 2021. "Measuring liquidity risk effects on carry trades across currencies and regimes," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ran Xiao, 2019. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Market Currencies," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 5-2019.
    11. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lee, Jieun & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "How does FX liquidity affect the relationship between foreign ownership and stock liquidity?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-119.
    13. Fei Su, 2018. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2018.
    14. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Giulio Carlo Venturi, 2023. "Assessing the liquidity premium in the Italian bond market," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 795, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Chen, Pei-wen & Huang, Han-ching & Su, Yong-chern, 2014. "The central bank in market efficiency: The case of Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-260.
    16. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    17. Bu, Ruijun & Hizmeri, Rodrigo & Izzeldin, Marwan & Murphy, Anthony & Tsionas, Mike, 2023. "The contribution of jump signs and activity to forecasting stock price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    18. Ahadzie, Richard Mawulawoe & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam, 2020. "Trading volume and realized higher-order moments in the Australian stock market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    19. Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana, 2020. "Measuring the multi-faceted dimension of liquidity in financial markets: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Tian, Fengping & Yang, Ke & Chen, Langnan, 2017. "Realized volatility forecasting of agricultural commodity futures using the HAR model with time-varying sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 132-152.
    21. Chelley-Steeley, Patricia L. & Tsorakidis, Nikos, 2013. "Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 119-131.
    22. Xu, Yanyan & Huang, Dengshi & Ma, Feng & Qiao, Gaoxiu, 2019. "The heterogeneous impact of liquidity on volatility in Chinese stock index futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 73-85.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency market; Foreign exchange; Global liquidity; Price impact; Arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:146:y:2022:i:3:p:859-883. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.