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When do stop-loss rules stop losses?

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  • Kaminski, Kathryn M.
  • Lo, Andrew W.

Abstract

We propose a simple analytical framework to measure the value added or subtracted by stop-loss rules—predetermined policies that reduce a portfolio’s exposure after reaching a certain threshold of cumulative losses—on the expected return and volatility of an arbitrary portfolio strategy. Using daily futures price data, we provide an empirical analysis of stop-loss policies applied to a buy-and-hold strategy using index futures contracts. At longer sampling frequencies, certain stop-loss policies can increase expected return while substantially reducing volatility, consistent with their objectives in practical applications.

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  • Kaminski, Kathryn M. & Lo, Andrew W., 2014. "When do stop-loss rules stop losses?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 234-254.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:18:y:2014:i:c:p:234-254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2013.07.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Clare & James Seaton & Peter N Smith & Stephen Thomas, 2013. "Breaking into the blackbox: Trend following, stop losses and the frequency of trading – The case of the S&P500," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3), pages 182-194, June.
    2. Białkowski, Jędrzej, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies in institutional investors’ portfolios: Evidence from industry stop-loss rules," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhang, Zhanpei, 2021. "Realization utility with stop-loss strategy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 261-275.
    4. Chun-Hao Chen & Yu-Hsuan Chen & Vicente Garcia Diaz & Jerry Chun-Wei Lin, 2023. "An intelligent trading mechanism based on the group trading strategy portfolio to reduce massive loss by the grouping genetic algorithm," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 3-42, March.
    5. Bochuan Dai & Ben R. Marshall & Nhut H. Nguyen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2021. "Risk reduction using trailing stop‐loss rules," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1334-1352, December.
    6. Jessica James & Louis Yang, 2010. "Stop-losses, maximum drawdown-at-risk and replicating financial time series with the stationary bootstrap," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12.
    7. Dimitrios Vezeris & Themistoklis Kyrgos & Christos Schinas, 2018. "Take Profit and Stop Loss Trading Strategies Comparison in Combination with an MACD Trading System," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, September.
    8. Henderson, Vicky & Hobson, David & Tse, Alex S.L., 2018. "Probability weighting, stop-loss and the disposition effect," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 360-397.
    9. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    10. Ardia, David & Boudt, Kris & Hartmann, Stefan & Nguyen, Giang, 2022. "Properties of the Margrabe Best-of-two strategy to tactical asset allocation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Gregory Gadzinski & Markus Schuller & Shabnam Mousavi, 2022. "Long-lasting heuristics principles for efficient investment decisions," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 570-583, March.
    12. Edmond Lezmi & Jules Roche & Thierry Roncalli & Jiali Xu, 2020. "Improving the Robustness of Trading Strategy Backtesting with Boltzmann Machines and Generative Adversarial Networks," Papers 2007.04838, arXiv.org.
    13. Hong, Xin & Pang, Ningjing & Wang, Zhibin, 2022. "Stop-loss early termination clause and hedge fund performance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Rui Wang, 2021. "Discriminating modelling approaches for Point in Time Economic Scenario Generation," Papers 2108.08818, arXiv.org.
    15. Sadaqat, Mohsin & Butt, Hilal Anwar, 2023. "Stop-loss rules and momentum payoffs in cryptocurrencies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    16. Gerritsen, Dirk F., 2016. "Are chartists artists? The determinants and profitability of recommendations based on technical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 179-196.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investments; Portfolio management; Risk management; Asset allocation; Performance attribution; Behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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